THE IMPACT OF EGYPT’S GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) ON THE VOLUME OF INDONESIA’S COFFEE EXPORTS (25-Year Data)

Abstract

This study analyzes the effect of Egypt’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP, USD) on the volume of Indonesian coffee exports to Egypt (kg) (Harmonized System Code: 090111) over the period 2000–2024 using a simple regression method. The analysis is conducted based on the prediction that there is a relationship between two quantitative variables (GDP → export volume). The quality of the regression equation is assessed using the coefficient of determination, where , which measures the proportion of variability explained by the regression model. The results show that GDP has a positive and statistically significant effect on coffee exports (t = 9.49, p = 0,00000000202), with an  Value of 0.796, and the F-test result was statistically significant (p < 0.001). These findings indicate that Egypt’s GDP has a statistically significant simultaneous effect on the volume of coffee exports (ceteris paribus). The R-squared value of 0.797 indicates that 79.7% of the variation in coffee export volume can be explained by Egypt’s GDP, while the remaining 20.3% is influenced by other factors outside the model.