Bitcoin Price Forecasting Using Random Forest and On‑Chain Data

Abstract

Bitcoin’s extreme price volatility has long posed challenges for both investors and researchers seeking reliable forecasting models. Conventional financial approaches often fail to capture the highly complex, nonlinear, and fast-moving nature of cryptocurrency markets. To address this gap, this study develops a Bitcoin price prediction model using Random Forest Regression based on on-chain market data. The dataset was obtained from publicly available historical Bitcoin daily trading records spanning more than five years. Key features include opening price, daily high and low ranges, trading volume, and percentage change. The research was carried out in several stages. First, data preprocessing was conducted through normalization, handling of missing values, and feature engineering. Second, model training was performed with Random Forest, including parameter tuning to optimize predictive accuracy. Third, model evaluation employed R² and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as primary performance indicators. Fourth, visualization was implemented using interactive charts to allow users to observe short-term price fluctuations and long-term market patterns. The system development followed an iterative methodology inspired by the Streamlit Framework, which is an open-source Python library that simplifies building interactive web applications for data science and machine learning. This approach provides flexibility, enabling rapid experimentation and adaptation to evolving market conditions. The results show that the proposed model achieves near-perfect R² values (approaching 1.0) with consistently low MAPE, highlighting its reliability. Beyond predictive performance, the framework is designed to be scalable, supporting future integration with deep learning methods such as LSTM and external macroeconomic indicators, thus offering both practical utility for investors and academic contributions to decentralized finance research.