IMPLEMENTASI METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES DENGAN MODEL ALGORITMA CHEN UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI HARGA EMAS
Darsono Nababan, Eric Alexander
Abstract
Gold is one of the people's preferred forms of investment and is considered the safest (save -heaven). Gold risk which is considered small is the main attraction because in general Indonesian people are not yet familiar with capital market investments such as stocks and mutual funds. But the price of gold is very volatile as for the factors that affect the fluctuations of gold are consumption demand, volatility and market uncertainty, protection of low-interest rates, and the US dollar. Predicting the movement of the gold price and knowing where the direction of the exchange rate moves and determining the price of gold up or down cannot be done accurately and consistently. For this reason, in reducing the risk of loss, an application is needed to predict gold prices using the Fuzzy Time Series Chen algorithm using MATLAB software. In this study to obtain prediction results and comparison charts using actual data and prediction data for the 2015-2017 gold price. From the calculation results obtained by the prediction results with the Fuzzy Time Series method with the Chen algorithm where the average difference between the actual data and prediction data is not more than Rp. 2,850, - where predictions using the Fuzzy Time Series method Chen's algorithm is sufficient to use 1 data to predict the second data which makes this method accurate in predicting the price of gold.
Keywords
Gold; Investation; Fuzzy Time Series; Chen Algorithm; Prediction
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