The Determinants of Biodiesel Price in Indonesia

Safiullah Junejo, Herbert Wibert Victor Hasundungan, Teguh Yudo Wicaksono

Abstract


Research Originality: Indonesia is one of the leading producers of biodiesel globally. Despite this progress, the country surprisingly still experiences significant volatility in biodiesel prices. This phenomenon raises a critical question about the factors driving these fluctuations, which the existing literature still does not address adequately.

Research Objectives: This study delves into the dynamic relationships between biodiesel prices and various potential determinants.

Research Methods: The Vector Autoregressive model was employed, given its robustness in capturing dynamic interdependencies between multiple time series. The analysis utilized monthly data spanning Jan. 2016 to Dec. 2022 collected from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Indonesia.

Empirical Results: The VAR analysis reveals the nuanced influences of these variables on biodiesel prices. It suggests that an increase in the prices of CPO, crude glycerine, catalyst, and PFAD positively affects biodiesel prices, while price shocks in gasoil and methanol inversely impact them.

Implications: The findings highlight the necessity for a multi-factor approach to formulating pricing strategies. They inform policy decisions to foster price stability and drive the growth of the biodiesel sector.

JEL Classification: Q2, Q3, Q4, P28

How to Cite:
Junejo, S., Wibert, J., Hasundungan, V., & Wicaksono, T. Y. (2025). The Determinants of Biodiesel Price in Indonesia. Etikonomi, 24(1), 155 – 174. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v24i1.37581.


Keywords


biodiesel pricing; price determinants; biodiesel components; biofuel economics; sustainable energy

References


Abila, N. (2015). Econometric Estimation of the Petroleum Products Consumption in Nigeria: Assessing the Premise for Biofuels Adoption. Renewable Energy, 74, 884–892. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2014.09.007.

Acevedo, J. C., Hernández, J. A., Valdés, C. F., & Khanal, S. K. (2015). Analysis of Operating Costs for Producing Biodiesel from Palm Oil at Pilot-Scale in Colombia. Bioresource Technology, 188, 117–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.BIORTECH.2015.01.071.

Alghifari, E. S., Gunardi, A., Suteja, J., Nisa, I. K., & Amarananda, Z. (2022). Investment Decisions of Energy Sector Companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange: Theory and Evidence. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 12(6), 73–79. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.13642.

Alsaedi, Y. H., & Tularam, G. A. (2020). The Relationship between Electricity Consumption, Peak Load and GDP in Saudi Arabia: A VAR Analysis. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 175, 164–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2019.06.012.

Ambat, I., Srivastava, V., & Sillanpää, M. (2018). Recent Advancement in Biodiesel Production Methodologies using Various Feedstock: A Review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 90, 356–369. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.03.069.

Azni, M. A., Md Khalid, R., Hasran, U. A., & Kamarudin, S. K. (2023). Review of the Effects of Fossil Fuels and the Need for a Hydrogen Fuel Cell Policy in Malaysia. Sustainability, 15(5), 4033. https://doi.org/10.3390/SU15054033.

Braga, E. R., Mustafa, G. de S., Pontes, D. de A., & Pontes, L. A. M. (2020). Economic Analysis and Technicalities of Acrylic Acid Production from Crude Glycerol. Chemical Industry and Chemical Engineering Quarterly, 26(1), 59–69.

Cako, E., Wang, Z., Castro-Muñoz, R., Rayaroth, M. P., & Boczkaj, G. (2022). Cavitation based Cleaner Technologies for Biodiesel Production and Processing of Hydrocarbon Streams: A Perspective on Key Fundamentals, Missing Process Data and Economic Feasibility –A Review. Ultrasonics Sonochemistry, 88, 106081. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ultsonch.2022.106081.

Canakci, M., & Sanli, H. (2008). Biodiesel Production from Various Feedstocks and Their Effects on the Fuel Properties. Journal of Industrial Microbiology & Biotechnology, 35(5), 431–441. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10295-008-0337-6.

Chanthawong, A., Dhakal, S., & Jongwanich, J. (2016). Supply and Demand of Biofuels in the Fuel Market of Thailand: Two Stage Least Square and Three Least Square Approaches. Energy, 114, 431–443. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.08.006.

Chilakamarry, C. R., Sakinah, A. M. M., Zularisam, A. W., & Pandey, A. (2021). Glycerol Waste to Value Added Products and Its Potential Applications. Systems Microbiology and Biomanufacturing, 1(4), 378–396. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43393-021-00036-w.

Damian, C. S., Devarajan, Y., & Jayabal, R. (2024). Biodiesel production in India: Prospects, challenges, and sustainable directions. Biotechnology and Bioengineering, 121(3), 894–902. https://doi.org/10.1002/BIT.28643

De Lucia, C., & Bartlett, M. (2014). Implementing a biofuel economy in the EU: Lessons from the SUSTOIL project and future perspectives for next generation biofuels. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 29, 22–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.08.058

Declerck, F., Indjehagopian, J. P., & Lantz, F. (2022). Dynamics of biofuel prices on the European market: the impact of EU environmental policy on resources markets. Journal of Energy Markets, 15(1), 19–45. https://doi.org/10.21314/JEM.2022.010

Deka, T. J., Osman, A. I., Baruah, D. C., & Rooney, D. W. (2022). Methanol fuel production, utilization, and techno-economy: a review. Environmental Chemistry Letters 2022 20:6, 20(6), 3525–3554. https://doi.org/10.1007/S10311-022-01485-Y

Elgharbawy, A. S., Sadik, W. A., Sadek, O. M., & Kasaby, M. A. (2021). Glycerolysis treatment to enhance biodiesel production from low-quality feedstocks. Fuel, 284, 118970. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2020.118970

Elgharbawy, A. S., Sadik, Wagih. A., Sadek, O. M., Kasaby, M. A., Elgharbawy, A. S., Sadik, Wagih. A., Sadek, O. M., & Kasaby, M. A. (2021). A Review on Biodiesel Feedstocks and Production Technologies. Journal of the Chilean Chemical Society, 66(1), 5098–5109.

Embong, N. H., Hindryawati, N., Bhuyar, P., Govindan, N., Rahim, M. H. A., & Maniam, G. P. (2023). Enhanced Biodiesel Production via Esterification of Palm Fatty Acid Distillate (PFAD) using rice husk ash (NiSO4)/SiO2 catalyst. Applied Nanoscience, 13(3), 2241–2249.

Fuinhas, J. A., Koengkan, M., Silva, N. M. B. G., Kwilinski, A., Lyulyov, O., & Pimonenko, T. (2023). Greenfield Investment as a Catalyst of Green Economic Growth. Energies, 16(5), 2372. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16052372.

Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791.

Guefano, S., Tamba, J. G., Azong, T. E. W., & Monkam, L. (2021). Forecast of Electricity Consumption in the Cameroonian Residential Sector by Grey and Vector Autoregressive Models. Energy, 214, 118791.

Gülşen, E., Olivetti, E., Freire, F., Dias, L., & Kirchain, R. (2014). Impact of Feedstock Diversification on the Cost-Effectiveness of Biodiesel. Applied Energy, 126, 281–296.

Habibi, F., Chakrabortty, R. K., & Abbasi, A. (2023). Towards Facing Uncertainties in Biofuel Supply Chain Networks: a Systematic Literature Review. Environmental Science and Pollution Research International, 30(45), 100360. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11356-023-29331-W.

Halimatussadiah, A., Nainggolan, D., Yui, S., Moeis, F.R., & Siregar, A.A. (2021). Progressive Biodiesel Policy in Indonesia: Does the Government’s Economic Proposition Hold? Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 150, 111431.

Harahap, F., Silveira, S., & Khatiwada, D. (2019). Cost Competitiveness of Palm Oil Biodiesel Production in Indonesia. Energy, 170, 62–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.12.115.

Hossain, M., & Majumder, A. K. (2018). Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production and Food Security: A Review on Coastal Regions of Bangladesh. International Journal of Agricultural Research, Innovation, and Technology, 8(1), 62-69.

Hu, M., Zhang, D., Ji, Q., & Wei, L. (2020). Macro Factors and the Realized Volatility of Commodities: A Dynamic Network Analysis. Resources Policy, 68, 101813. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101813.

Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2–3), 231–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3.

Junejo, S., Muhammad, M., & Hasundungan, H. W. V. (2024). Symmetric and Asymmetric Response of the Renewable Energy Market to Indonesian Economic Trends. Muslim Business and Economics Review, 3(1), 76-101.

Lopresto, C. G. (2024). Sustainable Biodiesel Production from Waste Cooking Oils for Energetically Independent Small Communities: An Overview. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 1–22.

Maheshwari, P., Haider, M. B., Yusuf, M., Klemeš, J. J., Bokhari, A., Beg, M., Al-Othman, A., Kumar, R., & Jaiswal, A. K. (2022). A Review of Latest Trends in Cleaner Biodiesel Production: Role of Feedstock, Production Methods, and Catalysts. Journal of Cleaner Production, 355, 131588. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131588.

Mizik, T., & Gyarmati, G. (2021). Economic and Sustainability of Biodiesel Production—A Systematic Literature Review. Clean Technologies, 3(1), 19–36. https://doi.org/10.3390/cleantechnol3010002.

Muhammad, M., & Hasudungan, H. W. V. (2025). Analyzing the Market Conditions and Long-Term Dynamics in the Biodiesel Industry. Biofuels, 16(1), 32-41. https://doi.org/10.1080/17597269.2024.2371241.

Nunes, L. J. R. (2023). The Rising Threat of Atmospheric CO2: A Review on the Causes, Impacts, and Mitigation Strategies. Environments, 10(4), 66.

Popp, M., Grasu, S., & Popa, M. (2023). The Impact of Biomass Production on Economic Growth at the EU Level. Western Balkan Journal of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, 5(2), 179–193. https://doi.org/10.5937/WBJAE2302179P.

Reichenberg, L., Siddiqui, A. S., & Wogrin, S. (2018). Policy Implications of Downscaling the Time Dimension in Power System Planning Models to Represent Variability in Renewable Output. Energy, 159, 870–877. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.06.160.

Rosyadi, F. H., Mulyo, J. H., Perwitasari, H., & Darwanto, D. H. (2021). Export Intensity and Competitiveness of Indonesia’s Crude Palm Oil to Main Destination Countries. Agricultural Economics, 67(5), 189–199.

Sandaka, B. P., & Kumar, J. (2023). Alternative Vehicular Fuels for Environmental Decarbonization: A Critical Review of Challenges in using Electricity, Hydrogen, and Biofuels as a Sustainable Vehicular Fuel. Chemical Engineering Journal Advances, 14, 100442. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.CEJA.2022.100442.

Shah, I. H., Hiles, C., & Morley, B. (2018). How Do Oil Prices, Macroeconomic Factors and Policies Affect the Market for Renewable Energy? Applied Energy, 215, 87–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.01.084.

Shahzad, U., Elheddad, M., Swart, J., Ghosh, S., & Dogan, B. (2023). The Role of Biomass Energy Consumption and Economic Complexity on Environmental Sustainability in G7 Economies. Business Strategy and the Environment, 32(1), 781–801.

Sims, C. (1986). Are Forecasting Models Usable for Policy Analysis? Quarterly Review, 10(1), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.21034/qr.1011.

Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912017.

Siregar, R. C., Prajitno, P., & Kurniawan, E. (2020). Analysis of Biodiesel Production Cost and Price in Indonesia. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1479(1), 012045.

Syahtaria, M. I. (2023). Strengthening National Defense: Dynamics of Mandatory Biodiesel Policy and Renewable Energy Potential in Indonesia’s Palm Oil Industry. Jurnal Manajemen Pelayanan Publik, 07(2), 46798. https://doi.org/10.24198/jmpp.v7i2.46798.

Wang, H. (2020). The Economic Impact of Oil and Gas Development in the Permian Basin: Local and Spillover Effects. Resources Policy, 66, 101599. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESOURPOL.2020.101599.

Wicaksono, F., Susanto, B., & Farida, F. (2022). The Effect of Environmental Performance, Environmental Costs, and Environmental Disclosure on Profitability of Manufacturing Companies Listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2016 - 2020. Urecol Journal Part B Economics and Business, 2(1), 32–42. https://doi.org/10.53017/ujeb.130.

Wirawan, S. S., Solikhah, M. D., Setiapraja, H., & Sugiyono, A. (2024). Biodiesel Implementation in Indonesia: Experiences and Future Perspectives. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 189, 113911.

Xu, H., Lee, U., & Wang, M. (2020). Life-Cycle Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Palm Fatty Acid Distillate Derived Renewable Diesel. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 134, 110144. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RSER.2020.110144.


Full Text: PDF

DOI: 10.15408/etk.v24i1.37581

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.




Copyright (c) 2025 Safiullah Junejo, Herbert Wibert Victor Hasundungan, Teguh Yudo Wicaksono

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.