FORECASTING ANALYSIS OF SHALLOTS ( Allium cepa L. ) IN NORTH SUMATRA PROVINCE

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the results of the trend of shallot production in North Sumatra in 2021-2030 whether it will increase or not. The data used in this research is secondary data. The object of research in this study is statistical data on the annual shallot production in North Sumatra Province at the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) for 2011-2020. The appropriate research method in this study uses the trend parabola. This is because the trend parabola has the smallest Mean Squared Error (MSE) value of 4,215,734.62 and the smallest percentage of Mean Absolute Precentage Error (MAPE) is 2.1% compared to other methods. The results showed that forecasting shallot production in North Sumatra Province has increased. There is a deficit between shallot consumption and production, for this reason it is necessary to breed shallot seeds, and increase the area of shallot plantations in North Sumatra Province to increase shallot production and productivity so as to be able to meet the demand for shallot consumption in North Sumatra Province.