The Effect of Monetary Variable Shocks on Indonesian Portfolio Investment
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v12i2.31525Keywords:
Saving, investment, interest rates, money supply, monetary policyAbstract
Monetary variables can affect portfolio investment in the short or long term. The previous studies rarely discuss the effects of monetary variables in the long and short term on portfolio investment. This study looks at monetary indicators that affect investment portfolios in Indonesia. The methodology used in this research is to use the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to see the response of several variables in the short and long term. The findings suggest that monetary policy should pay special attention to Indonesia's money supply (M2) and savings to influence portfolio investment in the short term. The monetary policy transmission mechanism can use the money and expectation channels to optimize monetary variables to control investment. Meanwhile, in the long run, monetary policy portfolio investment control needs to pay attention to interest rates and savings and adjust to the set inflation target, which can be used in the interest rate channel.JEL Classification: E21, E22, E43, E51, E52 How to Cite:Fuddin, M. K., & Anindyntha, F. A., (2023). The Effect of Monetary Variable Shocks on Indonesian Portofolio Invesment. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 12(2), 307-326. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v12i2.31525.
References
Acker, D., & Duck, N. W. (2012). Which Stocks are Inflation-Proof? SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1787264
Adekunle, W., & Ndukwe, C. I. (2018). The Impact of Exchange Rate Dynamics on Agricultural Output Performance in Nigeria. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3214757
Ahmadov, B. (2022). Assessment of factors influencing the formation of corporate savings in Azerbaijan. Obshchestvo i Ekonomika, 2. https://doi.org/10.31857/s020736760018139-1
Ani, K. J., & Onu, C. (2022). Effect of foreign direct investment on gross national income in Nigeria, 2006-2017. Independent Journal of Management & Production, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.14807/ijmp.v13i1.1484
Arintoko, & Insukindro. (2017). Effect of Exchange Rate, Foreign Direct Investment and Portfolio Investment on the Indonesian Economy: A Structural Cointegrating Vector Autoregression Approach. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(2).
Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal, B. (2021). Pentingnya Peran Investasi dalam Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia di Kala Pandemi _ Invest Indonesia. https://www.investindonesia.go.id/id/artikel-investasi/detail/pentingnya-peran-investasi-dalam-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-indonesia-di-kala-pand
Banerjee, A., Duflo, E., & Qian, N. (2020). On the road: Access to transportation infrastructure and economic growth in China. Journal of Development Economics, 145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102442
Boughrara, A., & Dridi, I. (2017). Does inflation targeting matter for foreign portfolio investment: Evidence from propensity score matching. Journal of Economic Development, 42(2). https://doi.org/10.35866/caujed.2017.42.2.005
C. Otiwu, K. (2022). Deregulation of Interest Rate in Nigeria and Deposit Money Bank’s Performance (1996 – 2018). Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting. https://doi.org/10.9734/ajeba/2022/v22i430553
Çayır, B. (2021). The impacts of international capital flows on household credits. Central Bank Review, 21(4). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.12.001
Chaturvedi, V., Dholakia, R. H., & Kumar, B. (2011). Inter-Relationship between Economic Growth, Savings and Inflation in Asia. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1212096
Damodar N. Gujarati. (2004). Basic Econometrics (Fourth Edi). The McGraw−Hill Companies.
Dang, T. T., Pham, A. D., & Tran, D. N. (2020). Impact of Monetary Policy on Private Investment : Evidence from Vietnam ’ s Provincial Data. Economies, 8(2011), 1–15. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3390/economies8030070
Dash, S. K., & Kumar, L. (2018). Does Inflation Affect Savings Non-linearly? Evidence from India. Margin, 12(4). https://doi.org/10.1177/0973801018786155
Ekeocha, D. O., Ogbuabor, J. E., & Orji, A. (2022). Public infrastructural development and economic performance in Africa: a new evidence from panel data analysis. Economic Change and Restructuring, 55(2). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-021-09334-8
Elhendawy, E. O. (2022). Does External Debt Service Devalue Local Currency in the Long Run? Empirical Evidence from Egypt. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 14(2). https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v14n2p51
Fan, J., Li, X., Shi, Q., & Su, C. W. (2018). The co-movement and causality between housing and stock markets in the time and frequency domains considering inflation. China Finance Review International, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.1108/CFRI-06-2017-0061
Filho, A. (2017). What Drives Long Term Real Interest Rates in Brazil? Brazilian Business Review, 14(6). https://doi.org/10.15728/bbr.2017.14.6.5
Gavin, M., Hausmann, R., & Talvi, E. (2012). Saving Behavior in Latin America: Overview and Policy Issues. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1815974
Ghouse, G., Khan, S. A., Rehaman, A. U., & Rehman, A. U. (2018). ARDL model as a remedy for spurious regression : Problems, performance and prospectus. Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, 83973.
Joshi, U. L. (2021). Effect of Money Supply on Inflation in Nepal: Empirical Evidence from ARDL Bounds Test. International Research Journal of MMC, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.3126/irjmmc.v2i1.35134
Kapchanga, D. J., Owili, P. A., & Onyuma, S. O. (2018). Does Public Debt Moderate the Effect of Inflation Rate on Securities Market Returns in Kenya? International Journal of Scientific Research and Management, 6(12). https://doi.org/10.18535/ijsrm/v6i12.em01
Kaplan, F., & Gungor, S. (2017). The Relationship Between Money Supply, Interest Rate and Inflation Rate: an Endogeneity-Exogeneity Approach. European Scientific Journal, ESJ, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.19044/esj.2017.v13n1p30
Khajavi, A., Tehrani, R., Mirlouhi, seyyed M., & Moghadamzadeh, A. (2020). Assessing risk factors affecting banking system credit portfolio returns in Iran using agent-based models approach. Journal of Critical Reviews, 7(2). https://doi.org/10.31838/jcr.07.02.35
Kiganda, E. O. (2014). Relationship between Inflation and Money Supply in Kenya. Journal of Social Economics, 2(2).
Kuvshinov, D., & Zimmermann, K. (2018). The Big Bang: Stock Market Capitalization in the Long Run. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3236076
Kyriacou, A. P., Muinelo-Gallo, L., & Roca-Sagalés, O. (2019). The efficiency of transport infrastructure investment and the role of government quality: An empirical analysis. Transport Policy, 74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2018.11.017
Lassance, N., & Vrins, F. (2021). Portfolio selection with parsimonious higher comoments estimation. Journal of Banking and Finance, 126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106115
Mutuku, C., & Ng’eny, K. L. (2014). Macroeconomic Variables and the Kenyan Equity Market: A Time Series Analysis. Business and Economic Research, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.5296/ber.v5i1.6733
Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., & Prasad, A. D. (2006). Modeling the relationship between budget deficits, money supply and inflation in Fiji. Pacific Economic Bulletin, 21(2).
Nur Safitri, I. N., Sudradjat, S., & Lesmana, E. (2020). STOCK PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS USING MARKOWITZ MODEL. International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling, 1(1). https://doi.org/10.46336/ijqrm.v1i1.6
Oyerinde, A. A. (2019). Foreign Portfolio Investment And Stock Market Development in Nigeria. The Journal of Developing Areas, 53(3). https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.2019.0034
Rahman Aleemi, A., Ahmed, S., & Tariq, M. (2015). The Determinants Of Savings: Empirical Evidence From Pakistan. International Journal of Management Sciences and Business Research, 4(1).
Rinika, D., Winardy, J., Engelina, J., & Clarence, A. (2021). Analysis of the Effect of Increasing the GDP of Central Java Province Through Infrastructure Development. Eduvest - Journal Of Universal Studies, 1(6). https://doi.org/10.36418/edv.v1i6.79
Seetharaman, A., Niranjan, I., Patwa, N., & Kejriwal, A. (2017). A Study of the Factors Affecting the Choice of Investment Portfolio by Individual Investors in Singapore. Accounting and Finance Research, 6(3). https://doi.org/10.5430/afr.v6n3p153
Seftarita, C., Fitriyani, F., Rizki, C. Z., Sapha, D., & Jamal, Abd. (2019). Short Term Portfolio Investment and BI Rate: Do They Determine the Stabilization of Rupiah Exchange Rate in Indonesia? Journal of Economic Development, Environment and People, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.26458/jedep.v8i1.608
Shakil, M. H., Mustapha, I. M., Tasnia, M., & Saiti, B. (2018). Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An application of ARDL approach. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 23(44). https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-03-2017-0052
Sharif Chaudhry, I., Farooq, F., & Mushtaq, A. (2014). FACTORS AFFECTING PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT IN PAKISTAN: EVIDENCE FROM TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. In Pakistan Economic and Social Review (Vol. 52, Issue 2).
Sheikh, U. A., Asad, M., Israr, A., Tabash, M. I., & Ahmed, Z. (2020). Symmetrical cointegrating relationship between money supply, interest rates, consumer price index, terroristic disruptions, and Karachi stock exchange: Does global financial crisis matter? Cogent Economics and Finance, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2020.1838689
Singh, N. P., & Joshi, N. (2019). Investigating Gold Investment as an Inflationary Hedge. Business Perspectives and Research, 7(1). https://doi.org/10.1177/2278533718800178
Spuchľakova, E., Michalikova, K. F., & Misankova, M. (2015). Risk of the Collective Investment and Investment Portfolio. Procedia Economics and Finance, 26. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(15)00910-7
Sumarminingsih, E., & Nugroho, W. H. (2013). Vector autoregressive for assessing relationship between inflation, interest rate and money supply. International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 51(21).
Taye, A. Y. (2017). The Saving-Inflation Puzzle: Explaining their Relationship in Ethiopia. IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 22(2). https://doi.org/10.9790/0837-2202057481
Tekin, B. (2021). Modeling the relation of financial integration-economic growth with gmm and qr methods2. Ikonomicheski Izsledvania, 30(8).
Toczylowski, A., Bacon, L., Chew, G., Haggerty, J., & Yontar, T. (2018). Real Assets. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3154635
Usman, M., Fatin, D. F., Barusman, M. Y. S., Elfaki, F. A. M., & Widiarti. (2017). Application of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Impulse Response Function for Analysis Data Index of Farmers’ Terms of Trade. Indian Journal of Science and Technology, 10(19), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.17485/ijst/2017/v10i19/112258
Wang, H., Liu, Y., Xiong, W., & Zhu, D. (2019). Government Support Programs and Private Investments in PPP Markets. International Public Management Journal, 22(3). https://doi.org/10.1080/10967494.2018.1538025
Waqas, Y., Hashmi, S. H., & Nazir, M. I. (2015). Macroeconomic factors and foreign portfolio investment volatility: A case of South Asian countries. Future Business Journal, 1(1–2). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fbj.2015.11.002
West, T. A. P., Salekin, S., Melia, N., Wakelin, S. J., Yao, R. T., & Meason, D. (2021). Diversification of forestry portfolios for climate change and market risk mitigation. Journal of Environmental Management, 289. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112482
Xu, X., Dou, G., & Yu, Y. (2021). Government investment strategy and platform pricing decisions with the cross-market network externality. Kybernetes, 50(3). https://doi.org/10.1108/K-10-2019-0714
Zou, X. (2018). VECM Model Analysis of Carbon Emissions, GDP, and International Crude Oil Prices. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/5350308