Forecasting Export Volume of Indonesian and Colombian Coffee in the World Market using ARIMA Model

Fadhlan Zuhdi, Achmad Subchiandi Maulana, Khoiru Rizqy Rambe


Colombian coffee exports influence Indonesian coffee exports in the short term, so this study aims to forecast the export volume of Indonesian and Colombian coffee in the future. The study used time-series data from 2001 to 2021, further analyzed using the ARIMA model. Based on the projection, Indonesian coffee export is projected to increase with an average value of 1.14 percent and a potential increase of 1.79 percent. However, this result still needed to reach the desired value since the projected coffee export of Indonesia in 2025 only reached 429 172 tons, or lower than the export quantity of Colombian coffee in 2011. This finding indicated that Indonesian coffee export tended to increase stagnantly and was considered low compared to the increasing export of Colombian coffee.

JEL Classification: C22, C53, E37, F17, Q13

How to Cite:
Zuhdi, F., Maulana A. S., & Rambe, K. R. (2023). Forecasting Export Volume of Indonesian and Colombian Coffee in the World Market using ARIMA Model. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 12(1), 57-68.


ARIMA; coffee; export volume; forecasting


Atif, R. M., Mahmood, H., Haiyun, L., & Mao, H. (2019). Determinants and Efficiency of Pakistan’s Chemical Products’ Exports: An Application of Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model. PLoS ONE, 14(5), e0217210.

Bhattarai, C., Bhandari, D., Bhandari, S., Bhusal, K., Khatri, B., Srivastava, A., & Sapkota, B. K. (2020). Factors affecting the productivity of coffee in Gulmi and Arghakhanchi districts of Nepal. Journal of Agriculture and Natural Resources, 3(1), 51–60.

Chandra, D., Ismono, H., & Kasymir, E. (2013). Prospek Perdagangan Kopi Robusta Indonesia di Pasar Internasional. Jurnal Ilmu Ilmu Agribisnis, 1(1), 10-15.

Deina, C., do Amaral Prates, M. H., Alves, C. H. R., Martins, M. S. R., Trojan, F., Stevan, S. L., & Siqueira, H. V. (2021). A Methodology for Coffee Price Forecasting Based on Extreme Learning Machines. Information Processing in Agriculture, 9(4), 556-565.

Erlina, R., & Azhar, R. (2020). Forecasting Model of Agriculture Commodity of Value Export of Coffee: Application of ARIMA Model. Jurnal Teknik Pertanian Lampung (Journal of Agricultural Engineering), 9(3), 257-263.

Fattah, J., Ezzine, L., Aman, Z., El Moussami, H., & Lachhab, A. (2018). Forecasting of demand using ARIMA model. International Journal of Engineering Business Management, 10, 1–9.

Ginting, C. P., & Kartiasih, F. (2019). Analisis Eksport Kopi Indonesia ke Negara-negara ASEAN. Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 16(2), 143-157.

Gomez, L. A. (2018). Colombia-Coffee Annual-Colombian Coffee Production Decreases after Five Years of Growth. USDA Foreign Agriculture Service.

Gopinath, M., Sweka, S., & Vishalakshi, S. (2019). Forecasting of Coffee Production in India Using ARIMA Model. International Journal of Science, Engineering and Management, 4(10), 94–100.

Hamzah, L. M., Nabilah, S. U., Russel, E., Usman, M., Virginia, E., & Wamiliana. (2020). Dynamic Modelling and Forecasting of Data Export of Agricultural Commodity by Vector Autoregressive Model. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 55(3), 1-10.

Harris, E. (2012). Modeling Annual Coffee Production in Ghana Using ARIMA Time Series Model. International Journal of Business and Social Research (UBSR), 2, 175–186.

Jia, C., Wei, L., Wang, H., & Yang, J. (2015). A Hybrid Model Based on Wavelet Decomposition-Reconstruction in Track Irregularity State Forecasting. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2015(1), 1–13.

Lizano, V. R. (2017). Evolution of Coffee Terms of Trade of Costa Rica and Colombia. International Journal of Current Research, 9(7), 54217–54220.

Malaisamy, M. G., Sweka, S., & Vishalakshi, S. (2020). Forecasting of Barly Production in India Using ARIMA Model. Journal of Pharmacognosy and Phytochemistry, 9(1), 1193–1196.

Manalu, D. S. T., Harianto, H., Suharno, S., & Hartoyo, S. (2019). Posisi Daya Saing dan Kinerja Ekspor Kopi Indonesia di Pasar Global. Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian Dan Agribisnis, 3(4), 830–839.

Martauli, E. D. (2018). Analisis Produksi Kopi di Indonesia. Journal of Agribusiness Sciences, 1(2), 112–120.

Narulita, S., Winandi, R., & Jahroh, S. (2014). Analisis Daya Saing dan Strategi Pengembangan Agribisnis Kopi Indonesia. Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia, 2(1), 63-74.

Nirwana, N., Hadijati, M., & Fitriyani, N. (2018). Estimasi Parameter Model Moving Average Orde 1 Menggunakan Metode Momen dan Maximum Likelihood. Eigen Mathematics Journal, 1(1), 17–22.

Purnamasari, M., Hanani, N., & Huang, W.-C. (2014). Analisis Daya Saing Ekspor Kopi Indonesia di Pasar Dunia. Agricultural Socio-Economic Journal, 14(1), 58-66.

Qonita, A., Pertiwi, A. G., & Widiyaningtyas, T. (2017). Prediction of Rupiah Against US Dollar by using ARIMA. International Conference on Electrical Engineering, Computer Science and Informatics (EECSI), 2017, 19–21.

Riyanto., & Mulyono, S. (2019). Peramalan Bisnis dan Ekonometrika. Bogor: Mitra Wacana Media.

Rosiana, N., Nurmalina, R., Winandi, R., & Rifin, A. (2017). the Level of Comparative Advantages of World Main Coffee Producers. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 11(2), 227–246.

Sahat, S. F., Nuryartono, N., & Hutagaol, M. P. (2018). Analisis Pengembangan Ekspor Kopi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, 5(1), 63-89.

Sena, D., & Nagwani, N. K. (2015). Application of Time Series Based Prediction Model to Forecast per Capita Disposable Income. Souvenir of the 2015 IEEE International Advance Computing Conference, IACC 2015, 3, 454–457.

Siami-Namini, S., Tavakoli, N., & Siami Namin, A. (2019). A Comparison of ARIMA and LSTM in Forecasting Time Series. Proceedings - 17th IEEE International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications, ICMLA 2018, 1394–1401.

Stringer, C., & Roldán-Pérez, A. (2013). Colombian Coffee: Issues of Sustainability? Proceeding Dynamics of International Business: Asia-Pacific Business Cases.

Torok, A., Mizik, T., & Jambor, A. (2018). The Competitiveness of Global Coffee Trade. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 8(5), 1-6.

Wahyudi, A., Wulandari, S., Aunillah, A., & Alouw, J. C. (2020). Sustainability Certification as a Pillar to Promote Indonesian Coffee Competitiveness. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 418(1).

Yashavanth, B. S., Singh, K. N., Paul, A. K., & Paul, R. K. (2017). Forecasting prices of coffee seeds using Vector Autoregressive Time Series Model. Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 87(6), 754–758.

Yulia Putri, S., & Salam, S. (2019). The Role of Indonesian Government in Improving Coffee Competitiveness in the Eu-Indonesia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement Framework. Book Chapters of The 1st Jakarta International Conference on Social Sciences and Humanities (JICoSSH), 3, 311–322.

Zhang, H., Zhang, S., Wang, P., Qin, Y., & Wang, H. (2017). Forecasting of Particulate Matter Time Series using Wavelet Analysis and Wavelet-ARMA/ARIMA Model in Taiyuan, China. Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association, 67(7), 776–788.

Zuhdi, F., Windirah, N., & Maulanda, A. S. (2021). Analysis of Indonesian Coffee Export Performance To the Global Market Using Vector Autoregression (Var) Approach. Jurnal AGRISEP: Kajian Masalah Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis, 20(2), 381–396.

Full Text: PDF

DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v12i1.25456


  • There are currently no refbacks.