Integrating Spatial Autoregressive Exogenous with Ordinary Kriging for Improved Rainfall Prediction in Java: Enhancing Accuracy with Climate Variables and Spatial Autocorrelation
Abstract
Indonesia is a tropical country with high rainfall influenced by its archipelagic geography and phenomena like El Niño and La Niña. According to the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), La Niña can increase Indonesia's monthly rainfall by 20-40% above normal. Despite numerous existing spatial interpolation methods, there remains a significant research gap in accurately predicting rainfall at unsampled locations, specifically when considering both spatial autocorrelation and multiple climate variables simultaneously. This research proposes Spatial Autoregressive Exogenous Kriging (SAR-X Kriging), a novel hybrid approach that integrates the SAR-X model with Ordinary Kriging to enhance rainfall prediction accuracy. Unlike conventional methods, SAR-X Kriging explicitly captures both spatial dependence and the influence of external climate factors, improving predictive performance. SAR-X Kriging first models spatial dependencies between locations and incorporates exogenous climate variables (surface pressure, air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation) to enhance prediction accuracy. It also applies kriging for spatial interpolation. This method was chosen for its robustness in capturing spatial dependence and external influences. The analysis revealed significant spatial dependence across districts/cities in Java Island based on the Moran's Index test. The best SAR-X model, utilizing air temperature and wind speed as exogenous variables, achieved a p-value of 6.0352 × 10-9. Predictions using SAR-X Kriging yielded the lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 3.82%, outperforming the standalone SAR-X method MAPE 4.68% and the Ordinary Kriging method MAPE 3.86%. Practically, these results provide reliable rainfall predictions, enabling better climate-informed decision-making in water resource management, agricultural planning, and flood prevention strategies in Java.
Keywords: climate; rainfall; MAPE; SAR-X; SAR-X Kriging.
Abstrak
Indonesia merupakan negara tropis dengan curah hujan tinggi yang dipengaruhi oleh kondisi geografis kepulauan serta fenomena alam seperti El Niño dan La Niña. Menurut Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), La Niña mampu meningkatkan curah hujan bulanan Indonesia hingga 20-40% di atas normal. Meskipun terdapat berbagai metode interpolasi spasial yang telah dikembangkan, masih terdapat kesenjangan penelitian dalam menghasilkan prediksi curah hujan secara akurat di lokasi yang tidak tersampel, terutama ketika mempertimbangkan secara bersamaan ketergantungan spasial serta pengaruh dari berbagai variabel iklim. Penelitian ini mengusulkan metode bernama Spatial Autoregressive Exogenous Kriging (SAR-X Kriging), sebuah pendekatan hybrid baru yang mengintegrasikan model SAR-X dengan metode Ordinary Kriging untuk meningkatkan akurasi prediksi curah hujan. Tidak seperti metode konvensional, SAR-X Kriging secara eksplisit menangkap ketergantungan spasial serta pengaruh faktor iklim eksternal, sehingga meningkatkan kinerja prediktif. SAR-X Kriging bekerja dengan memodelkan terlebih dahulu ketergantungan spasial antar lokasi, kemudian memasukkan variabel eksogen berupa tekanan permukaan, suhu udara, kelembaban, kecepatan angin, dan radiasi matahari untuk meningkatkan akurasi prediksi, serta terakhir menerapkan teknik kriging untuk interpolasi spasial. Metode ini dipilih karena mampu menangkap secara lebih baik ketergantungan spasial sekaligus pengaruh variabel eksternal dibandingkan metode konvensional. Hasil analisis menunjukkan adanya ketergantungan spasial yang signifikan antar kabupaten/kota di Pulau Jawa berdasarkan uji Moran’s Index. Model SAR-X terbaik diperoleh dengan variabel suhu udara dan kecepatan angin, mencapai nilai p-value sebesar 6.0352 × 10-9. Prediksi menggunakan SAR-X Kriging menghasilkan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) sebesar 3,82%, mengungguli metode SAR-X yaitu MAPE 4,68% dan metode Ordinary Kriging yaitu MAPE 3,86%. Secara praktis, hasil ini dapat meningkatkan kualitas prediksi curah hujan yang bermanfaat dalam pengelolaan sumber daya air, perencanaan pertanian, serta strategi mitigasi banjir di Pulau Jawa.
Kata Kunci: curah hujan; iklim; MAPE; SAR-X; SAR-X Kriging.
2020MSC: 62H11, 86A32
Keywords
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DOI: 10.15408/inprime.v7i1.42070
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