Tourism Driving Growth ASEAN‑5 Policy Challenges

Jan Horas Veryady Purba; Rizal Riyadi

doi:10.15408/etk.v25i2.51834

Authors

Jan Horas Veryady Purba Department of Management, Institut Bisnis dan Informatika Kesatuan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8867-0214
Rizal Riyadi Department of Management, Institut Bisnis dan Informatika Kesatuan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v25i2.51834

Keywords:

tourism impact, inflation effects, exchange rate depreciation, fiscal imbalance, trade opennes

Abstract

Research Originality: This study presents a unified dynamic panel approach for the ASEAN-5, offering fresh empirical insights by integrating tourism and macroeconomic dimensions to reveal unexplored growth–policy linkages.

Research Objectives: The main objective is to examine short‑run and long‑run determinants of GDP growth, with emphasis on tourism, macroeconomic stability, and fiscal policy.

Research Methods: The study employs a robust fixed-effects panel model and a dynamic Panel VAR, complemented by IRF and VD, to capture short-run shocks, long-run responses, and determinants of change in ASEAN‑5.

Empirical Results: Tourism, inflation, exchange rate, and fiscal expenditure are the main factors shaping GDP growth in ASEAN‑5. In the short run, tourism expansion and moderate inflation support growth, while fiscal imbalance and currency depreciation weaken it. In the long run, tourism remains a structural driver, but persistent fiscal imbalances and exchange rate depreciation have negative effects. Inflation’s influence fades over time. FDI and trade openness show no significant impact, reflecting dependence on sectoral allocation and institutional quality.

Implications: Policymakers should strengthen tourism, optimize FDI for infrastructure development, pursue pro-growth fiscal strategies, and safeguard stability, aligned with ASEAN integration goals.

JEL Classification: E62, F21, F43, L83, O47

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Author Biography

Jan Horas Veryady Purba, Department of Management, Institut Bisnis dan Informatika Kesatuan

Department Management

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