Ecological Debt and Food Security: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Indonesian Provinces

Lilis Hoeriyah; Cici Musliha

doi:10.15408/etk.v25i2.50580

Authors

Lilis Hoeriyah Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa University
Cici Musliha Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v25i2.50580

Keywords:

environmental quality, food system, poverty, generalized method of moments

Abstract

Research Originality: This study positions multidimensional environmental quality (air, water, and marine ecosystems) as a key determinant of food security within a unified provincial framework, employing the GMM approach to address persistence and endogeneity.

Research Objectives: To assess the influence of environmental quality on food security across Indonesian provinces and identify socio-economic barriers to regional resilience.

Research Methods: Using panel data from 34 provinces during 2019–2024, the study examines the Food Security Index (FSI) in relation to the Environmental Quality Index (EQI), its sub-indices, and socio-economic controls, including agricultural GRDP, poverty, and unemployment.

Empirical Results: Food security exhibits strong persistence, indicating path dependence. Overall environmental quality has a negative short-run effect, reflecting an ecological debt pattern driven by resource exploitation. In contrast, water and air quality improve food security, while poverty and unemployment significantly constrain outcomes.

Implications: Indonesia should shift from a production-oriented to a resilience-oriented food security strategy by promoting sustainable intensification, improving water and marine resource management, and strengthening social protection. Given regional heterogeneity, place-based policies are essential to enhance long-term food system resilience and achieve SDG 2.

JEL Classification: Q56, Q18, C23, O13

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