Navigating Climate Risks in the Livestock Sector: Environmental Resources, Production Sustainability, and Food Security in Pakistan

Gulalai; Nazish  Kanval; Hajra Ihsan

doi:10.15408/etk.v25i2.49281

Authors

Gulalai University of Peshawar
Nazish Kanval International Islamic University Islambad
Hajra Ihsan 2 International Islamic Institute of Economics, International Islamic University Islamabad

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v25i2.49281

Keywords:

cattle productivity, thermal stress, flood shocks, auto-regressive distributed lag model, sustainable agriculture

Abstract

Research Originality: This study offers a comprehensive empirical analysis of temperature, heat stress, and flood shocks, alongside environmental and socioeconomic factors, to analyze livestock production dynamics, sustainability, and food security in Pakistan.

Research Objectives: The study investigates the short- and long-run effects of climate stressors and adaptive resource factors on livestock output, linking production to sustainable food systems and food security.

Research Method: Annual time-series data from 1980 to 2022 were analyzed for Pakistan’s livestock sector. The Auto-Regressive Dependent Lag model and bounds-testing approach were applied to estimate both short- and long-run relationships.

Empirical Results: Rising temperatures and heat stress significantly reduce livestock output, while floods cause short-run disruptions by damaging grazing systems and feed supply. Water availability, forest cover, and cropped land positively influence production. The error-correction coefficient indicates that approximately 68% of short-term disequilibrium adjusts toward long-run equilibrium annually.

Implications: These findings highlight the need for climate-resilient livestock management, including heat-stress mitigation, flood preparedness, water and land-use management, and crop-livestock integration, supporting Sustainable Development Goals 2 (Zero Hunger) and 13 (Climate Action) by enhancing food security and strengthening rural livelihoods in Pakistan.

JEL Classification: Q01, Q18, Q54, C32

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

Nazish Kanval, International Islamic University Islambad

She is a PhD scholar at the Department of International Islamic Institute of Economic, IIUI, Pakistan.

References

Abbas, Q., Han, J., Bakhsh, K., Ullah, R., Kousar, R., Adeel, A., & Akhtar, A. (2022). Adaptation to Climate Change risks among dairy farmers in Punjab, Pakistan. Land Use Policy, 119, 106184. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106184.

Abid, M., Schilling, J., Scheffran, J., & Zulfiqar, F. (2016). Climate Change vulnerability, adaptation, and risk perceptions at the farm level in Punjab, Pakistan. Science of the Total Environment, 547, 447–460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.11.125.

Acaravci, A., & Ozturk, I. (2010). On the Relationship between Energy Consumption, CO₂ Emissions, and Economic Growth in Europe. Energy, 35(12), 5412–5420. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2010.07.009.

Adil, L., Eckstein, D., Kuenzel, V., & Schaefer, L. (2025). Climate Risk Index 2025: Who Suffers Most From Extreme Weather Events. Retrieved from https://www.germanwatch.org/en/93013.

Ajani, A., & van der Geest, K. (2021). CC in Rural Pakistan: Evidence and Experiences from a People-Centered Perspective. Sustainability Science, 16(6), 1999–2011.

Alleyne, L., & Jones, J. (2022). The Impact of Climate Change on Selected Agricultural Production in A Water-Scarce Country. Journal of Development Policy and Practice, 7(1), 112–136. https://doi.org/10.1177/24551333211051826.

Anuta, A., Wang, X., & Kinay, P. (2025). The Impacts of Climate Change on Livestock: An Interdisciplinary, Scoping Review of Health, Production, and Adaptation Strategies. Climate Smart Agriculture, 2(4), 100082. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csag.2025.100082.

Arif, B., Malik, A. M., & Akhtar, N. (2022). Food Security and Livestock Linkages in Three Major Livestock Husbandry Districts of Punjab, Pakistan. IRASD Journal of Economics, 4(1), 141–148.

Atanga, R. A., & Tankpa, V. (2021). Climate Change, Flood Disaster Risk, and Food Security Nexus in Northern Ghana. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 5, 706721. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.706721.

Atchadé, M. N., & Nougbodé, H. (2024). Statistical Investigation on the Relationship Between Climate Change, Food Availability, Agricultural Productivity, and Economic Expansion. Heliyon, 10(12), e32520. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e32520.

Becker, C. A., Collier, R. J., & Stone, A. E. (2020). Physiological and Behavioral Effects of Heat Stress in Dairy Cows. Journal of Dairy Science, 103(8), 6751–6770. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2019-17929.

Biswal, J., Vijayalakshmy, K., T. K, Bhattacharya., & Rahman, H. (2021). Impact of Heat Stress on Livestock Production. Journal of Animal Science, 99(2), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1080/00439339.2022.2003168.

Boonkum, W., Teawyoneyong, W., Chankitisakul, V., Duangjinda, M., & Buaban, S. (2024). Impact of Heat Stress on Milk Yield, Milk Fat-to-Protein Ratio, and Conception Rate in Thai–Holstein Dairy Cattle: A Phenotypic and Genetic Perspective. Animals, 14(3), 3026. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani14203026.

Bonilla-Cedrez, C., Steward, P., Rosenstock, T. S., Thornton, P., Arango, J., Kropff, M., & Ramirez-Villegas, J. (2023). Priority Areas for Investment in More Sustainable and Climate-Resilient Livestock Systems. Nature Sustainability, 6(10), 1279–1286. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01161-1.

Cheng, M., McCarl, B., & Fei, C. (2022). Climate Change and Livestock Production: A Literature Review. Atmosphere, 13(1), 140. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13010140.

Das, R., Sailo, L., Verma, N., Bharti, P., Saikia, J., & Kumar, R. (2016). Impact of Heat Stress on Health and Performance of Dairy Animals. Veterinary World, 9(3), 260–268. https://doi.org/10.14202/vetworld.2016.260-268.

Dehlavi, A., Groom, B., & Gorst, A. (2015). Climate Change Adaptation in the Indus Ecoregion: A Microeconometric Study of the Determinants, Impacts, and Cost-Effectiveness of Adaptation Strategies. Islamabad: World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) Pakistan.

Dossa, L. I. K.-T., Bashir, M. K., Hassan, S., & Mushtaq, K. (2023). Modeling The Effects of Climate Change on Food Production in Ivory Coast: Evidence from ARDL Approach. Journal of Economic Impact, 5(2), 132–145. https://doi.org/10.52223/jei5022302.

Escarcha, J. F., Lassa, J. A., & Zander, K. K. (2018). Livestock Under Climate Change: A Systematic Review. Climate, 6(3), 54. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6030054.

Feng, X., Qiu, H., Pan, J., & Tang, J. (2021). The Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Production in China's Pastoral Areas. Science of the Total Environment, 770, 144838. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144838.

Fitton, N., Alexander, P., Arnell, N., Bajzelj, B., Calvin, K., Doelman, J., Gerber, J. S., Havlik, P., Hasegawa, T., Herrero, M., Krisztin, T., van Meijl., Powell, T., Sands, R., Stehfest, E., West, P. C., & Smith, P. (2019). The Vulnerabilities of Agricultural Land and Food Production to Future Water Scarcity. Global Environmental Change, 58, 101944. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944.

Frelat, R., et al. (2016). Drivers of Household Food Availability in Sub-Saharan Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(2), 458–463.

Govoni, C., Chiarelli, D. D., & Rulli, M. C. (2024). A Global Dataset of the National Green and Blue Water Footprint of Livestock Feeds. Scientific Data, 11, 1419. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-04264-2.

Gulalai & Nazir, N. (2025). Estimating the Nexus between Climate Change and Livestock Production in Pakistan. Journal of Economic Sciences, 4(2), 23-36. https://doi.org/10.55603/jes.v4i2.a2.

Gutai, B., Marohn, C., Bateki, C. A., & Asch, F. (2025). Assessing Impacts of Crop Area Expansion and Crop-Livestock Integration on Ecosystem Functions in African Savannas Using the Coupled LUCIA and LIVSIM Models. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 11(6), 449. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-025-02600-y.

Habeeb, A. A., Osman, S. F., Teama, F. E., & Gad, A. E. (2023). The Detrimental Impact of High Environmental Temperature on Physiological Response, Growth, Milk Production, and Reproductive Efficiency of Ruminants. Tropical Animal Health and Production, 55(6), 388. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11250-023-03805-y.

Hashmi, H. A., Belgacem, A. O., Behnassi, M., Javed, K., & Baig, M. B. (2021). Impacts of Climate Change on Livestock and Related Food Security Implications, and An Overview Of The Situation In. Behnassi, M., Baig, M. B., El Haiba, M., & Reed, M. R (Eds). Pakistan And Policy Recommendations. Emerging Challenges to Food Production and Security in Asia, Middle East, and Africa. Cham: Springer.

IPCC. (2022). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Ismail, E. B., Rachid, E. I., Azzeddine, R., Abderrahim, L., & Aicha, E. A. (2025). Climate Change and Its Impact on Agriculture in Morocco: An Analysis Using the ARDL Model. Pakistan Journal of Life & Social Sciences, 23(1).

Kabubo-Mariara, J. (2009). Global Warming and Livestock Husbandry in Kenya: Impacts and Adaptations. Ecological Economics, 68(7), 1915-1924. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.03.002.

Khurshid, N., Ajab, S., Tabash, M. I., & Barbulescu, M. (2023a). Asymmetries in Climate Change and Livestock Productivity: Non-Linear Evidence from Autoregressive Distribution Lag Model. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1139631.

Liu, W., Zhou, J., Ma, Y., Chen, S., & Luo, Y. (2024). Climate Warming and Global Cattle Production. Communications Earth & Environment, 5, 65.

Manzoor, Z., Ehsan, M., Khan, M. B., Manzoor, A., Akhter, M. M., Sohail, M. T., Hussain, A., Shafi, A., Abu-Alam, T., & Abioui, M. (2022). Floods and Flood Management and Its Socio-Economic Impact on Pakistan: A Review of the Empirical Literature. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10, 1021862. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.1021862.

Mihiretu, A., Okoyo, E. N., & Lemma, T. (2019). Determinants of Adaptation Choices to Climate Change in Agro-Pastoral Drylands of Northeastern Amhara, Ethiopia. Cogent Environmental Science, 5(1), 1636558. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311843.2019.1636548.

Mirzabaev, A., Kerr, R. B., Hasegawa, T., Pradhan, P., Wreford, A., & Gurney-Smith, H. (2023). Climate Change risks to Food Security. Climate Risk Management, 39, 100473. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100473.

Nardone, A., Ronchi, B., Lacetera, N., Ranieri, M. S., & Bernabucci, U. (2010). Climate Change and Livestock Systems. Livestock Science, 130(1–3), 57–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.livsci.2010.02.011.

Ngarava, S., Zhou, L., Mushunje, A., & Chaminuka, P. (2021). Impacts of Floods on Livestock Production in Port St Johns, South Africa. In. Nhamo, G., Chapungu, L. (Eds). The Increasing Risk of Floods and Tornadoes in Southern Africa. Sustainable Development Goals Series. Cham: Springer.

Nikzaad, R. M., & Nusrathali, N. (2023). Integrating Livestock and Crop Systems for Enhanced Productivity and Grassland Conservation in Developing Countries. In. Iqbal, M. A (Ed). Grasslands Conservation and Development. Croatia: Intech Open.

O’Neill, B. C., et al. (2022). Climate Change and Food Systems. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 47, 449–477.

Okoronkwo, D. J., Ozioko, R. I., Ugwoke, R. U., Nwagbo, U. V., Nwobodo, C., Ugwu, C. H., Okoro, G. G., & Mbah, E. C. (2024). Climate-smart Agriculture? Adaptation Strategies Of Traditional Agriculture to Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa. Frontiers in Climate, 6, 1272320. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1272320.

Omele, A. H., Saheed, Z., & Alexander, A. (2023). Inflation and Agricultural Production. International Journal of Economics and Management Science, 12(3), 1–10.

Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.

Rasool, S., Hamdani, S., Hai, A., Fayaz, A., & Akand, A. (2020). Economic Losses Due to Floods. Journal of Entomology and Zoological Studies, 8(3), 1091–1094.

Rojas-Downing, M. M., Nejadhashemi, A. P., Harrigan, T., & Woznicki, S. A. (2017). Climate Change and Livestock. Climate Risk Management, 16, 145–163.

Shahid, S., & Adnan, S. (2021). Climate Change in Pakistan. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 146, 1261–1278.

Solomon, T., Gupta, V., & Ncho, C. M. (2023). Forestry-Based Livestock Solutions. Ecologies, 4(4), 714–730.

Silveira, R. M. F., Façanha, D. A. E., de Vasconcelos, A. M., Leite, S. C. B., Leite, J. H. G. M., Saraiva, E. P., ... & da Silva, I. J. O. (2026). Physiological Adaptability of Livestock to Climate Change: A Global Model-Based Assessment for the 21st Century. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 116, 108061.

Taye, T., Vithalrao, U. S., Borah, S., Kumar, M., Singh, A. K., MT, M., Kanwar, B. P. S., & Chincholikar, M. (2025). Scientific Advances in Climate-Resilient Livestock Production with Emphasis on Sustainability: A Review. Journal of Experimental Agriculture International, 47(8), 744-757.

Thornton, P. K., Nelson, G. C., Mayberry, D. E., & Herrero, M. (2022). Heat Stress and Cattle Production. The Lancet Planetary Health, 6(3), e192–e201.

Tiruneh, S., & Tegene, F. (2018). Impacts of Climate Change on Livestock Production and Productivity and Different Adaptation Strategies in Ethiopia. Journal of Applied and Advanced Research, 3(3), 52-58.

Tulu, D., Gadissa, S., Hundessa, F., & Kebede, E. (2023). Climate-Smart Fodder Systems. Advances in Agriculture, 2023, 8067776.

Usman, M., Ali, A., Rosak-Szyrocka, J., Pilař, L., Baig, S. A., Akram, R., & Wudil, A. H. (2023). Climate Change and Livestock Herders' Wellbeing in Pakistan: Does the Nexus of Risk Perception, Adaptation, and Their Drivers Matter? Heliyon, 9(6), e16983. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16983.

Weindl, I., Bodirsky, B. L., Rolinski, S., Biewald, A., Lotze-Campen, H., Müller, C., Dietrich, J. P., Humpenoder, F., Stevanovic, M., Schapoff, S., & Popp, A. (2017). Livestock and Water Challenges. Global Environmental Change, 47, 121–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.09.010.