Signifikan is an international journal published by the Faculty of Economics and Business, UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta, focusing on Economic Development in Developing Countries. First published in 2012, the journal is issued twice a year (April & October) and encourages international collaboration. Since 2016, the journal has been published in English.
Faculty of Economic and Business, Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah
The Role of Fertilizer Subsidies in Rice Productivity and Profitability: Evidence from Indonesian Smallholder Farmers
Research Originality: This study provides micro-level evidence on the dual effects of fertilizer subsidies on rice farmers’ production and profitability, a dimension rarely examined simultaneously at the household level in Indonesia. Using data from two contrasting rice-producing regions, the study isolates subsidy effects on both physical output and farm profit while controlling for input costs and price conditions. Research Objectives: To analyze the effects of fertilizer subsidies on rice production and farm profit in Karawang (West Java) and Lombok (West Nusa Tenggara). Research Methods: OLS regression was applied to cross-sectional data from 51 rice-farming households. Two models were estimated: a production function and a profit function. Empirical Results: Fertilizer quantity, land size, and labor positively influence rice production. Farm profit is significantly affected by production quantity, rice price, total cost, and pesticide cost. Fertilizer cost is not a significant determinant of profit. Implications: Fertilizer quantity, not cost, drives production. Subsidies should be maintained but reoriented toward targeted, quantity-based schemes and improved distribution efficiency to maximize welfare impact. JEL Classification: Q12, Q18, D24, I32
Copyright (c) 2026 Widyastutik Widyastutik, Mimin Aminah, Dian Verawati Panjaitan, Eko Ruddy Cahyadi https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Structural Drivers of Risk-Taking in Indonesia’s Islamic Banks
Research Originality: This research is original in its focus on the long-run structural determinants of risk-taking in Indonesian Islamic banking. Research Objectives: The study aims to analyze how liquidity, profit-and-loss sharing (PLS), financing growth, financing-to-deposit ratio (FDR), economic growth, and inflation influence risk-taking behavior in Islamic banks. Research Methods: This study employs ARDL and Error Correction Model (ECM) techniques. The study investigates quarterly data from 2015 to 2024 to assess short-run and long-run relationships. The ECM framework provides insights into the adjustment mechanism toward equilibrium. Empirical Results: In the short run, liquidity, PLS, and financing growth significantly affect risk-taking. In the long run, liquidity has a significant negative effect, whereas PLS and Z-score exhibit a positive effect. Other variables are not statistically significant. The ECM confirms a strong adjustment mechanism, indicating that approximately 33.5% of short-run deviations are corrected toward long-run equilibrium each quarter. Implications: Policymakers and practitioners should design risk management strategies that differentiate between short-run operational adjustments and long-run macroeconomic anticipation. JEL Classification: C32, G21, G32, O16
Islamic Banking, Risk-Taking, ARDL, Error Correction Model (ECM), Liquidity
Copyright (c) 2026 Agus Suprapto, Mohammad Nur Rianto Al Arif, Indo Yama, Titi Dewi Warninda https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Economic Growth and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Asia: A Dynamic Panel Analysis Across Income Groups
Research Originality: This study contributes to environmental economics by examining the relationship between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions across Asian countries, while accounting for differences in income levels. Using a dynamic STIRPAT framework, the analysis also incorporates urbanization, energy intensity, and carbon intensity to understand how emission drivers vary across stages of development. Research Objectives: The study aims to explore the dynamic link between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions and to identify how demographic and technological factors influence emission patterns in lower-middle-, upper-middle-, and high-income Asian economies. Research Methods: The analysis uses panel data from 41 Asian countries during 1990–2022 and applies a dynamic panel estimation method, the two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (System-GMM). Empirical Results: Economic growth and urbanization generally increase greenhouse gas emissions. However, the main drivers differ by income level. In lower-middle-income countries, emissions are mainly driven by economic growth and carbon intensity. In upper-middle-income countries, urbanization and energy intensity play a larger role, while in high-income countries, the link between growth and emissions becomes weaker. Implications: These findings suggest that environmental policies should be tailored to each stage of economic development. JEL Classification: C23, Q56, O44, Q43
Copyright (c) 2026 Hari Nugroho https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Structural Determinants of Regional Poverty in West Nusa Tenggara
Research Originality: This study contributes to the existing literature by examining the structural determinants of regional poverty at the regency and municipal levels in West Nusa Tenggara Province using the most recent post-pandemic panel dataset. Research Objectives: This study aims to analyze the effects of minimum wages, open unemployment rates, income inequality, and educational attainment on poverty rates in West Nusa Tenggara Province. Research Methods: The study uses panel data spanning 2018–2024 and covers 10 regencies and municipalities in West Nusa Tenggara Province. The Fixed Effects Model (FEM), selected based on the Chow and Hausman specification tests, is employed to estimate the relationship between poverty rates and the explanatory variables. Empirical Results: The results indicate that the minimum wage has a negative, statistically significant effect on poverty rates, whereas income inequality has a positive effect. In contrast, the open unemployment rate and educational attainment do not demonstrate statistically significant effects on poverty. Implications: These findings suggest that poverty alleviation strategies should prioritize strengthening wage protection frameworks and mitigating income inequality to foster inclusive and sustainable regional development. JEL Classification: I32, O15, J31, R11
Copyright (c) 2026 Intania Puspita Loka, Silvia Margaret https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
The Hidden Side of Regional Economic Growth in Bali
Research Originality: This research's novelty lies in its examination of the development of a multidimensional, non-compensatory framework, based on the Adjusted Mazziotta–Pareto Index (AMPI), which integrates regional fiscal priorities and socio-economic outcomes to map patterns of economic growth performance. Research Objectives: This research aims to assess the patterns and dynamics of economic growth performance across regencies and municipalities in Bali Province before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic, with particular attention to differences in growth quality, resilience, and recovery. Research Methods: This research employs the Adjusted Mazziotta–Pareto Index (AMPI) analysis from 2016 to 2024, which is constructed using five indicators: government spending on public services, education, health, lowering the poverty rate, and supporting GRDP growth. Empirical Results: The results indicate that economic growth performance across regencies and municipalities in Bali Province is dynamic and heterogeneous, varying by region and period. Implications: Regional development policies should prioritize the quality and resilience of economic growth by balancing public spending across structurally impactful sectors and adopting adaptive fiscal strategies. JEL Classification: H72, O47, R11, I32
Copyright (c) 2026 Nyoman Rahayu Trisanthi, Ida Ayu Nyoman Saskara https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Digital Financial Instruments, Financial Inclusion, and Regional Economic Performance in Indonesia
Research Originality: This study examines the joint effects of digital financial instruments and financial inclusion indicators on regional economic performance during the post-pandemic period of accelerated digital transformation. Research Objectives: The study aims to analyze the impact of electronic money transactions, third-party funds of Rural Banks (BPR), credit card transactions, and household internet access on Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita. Research Methods: Using panel data from 38 provinces over the 2020–2024 period, this study employs panel regression analysis. Based on the Chow and Hausman tests, the Fixed Effects Model (FEM) is selected as the most appropriate estimator. Empirical Results: The findings indicate that electronic money transactions, credit card transactions, and household internet access have a positive effect on GRDP per capita. In contrast, third-party funds of Rural Banks do not demonstrate a significant relationship with regional economic performance. Implications: The results underscore the importance of strengthening digital financial ecosystems and expanding digital infrastructure to foster inclusive and sustainable regional economic growth in emerging economies. JEL Classification: O16, O33, R11, G21
Copyright (c) 2026 Maylawati Arum Puspita, Shanty Oktavilia https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Determinants of International Migration: A Panel Data Evidence from Indonesia
Research Originality: This research is original in integrating education, unemployment, minimum wages, and poverty into a panel-data framework to analyze international labor migration across Indonesian provinces. Research Objectives: This study aims to investigate the impact of average educational attainment, the open unemployment rate, provincial minimum wage, and poverty rate on international migration of Indonesian workers. Research Methods: This study uses panel data from 32 provinces in Indonesia for the period 2010 to 2025 and applies a panel regression approach with a Fixed Effects Model. Empirical Results: The findings indicate significant influences from both dependent and independent variables. Average years of education, open unemployment rate, provincial minimum wage, and poverty are shown to have a negative and significant influence on the international migration patterns of Indonesian migrant workers. Implications: Policymakers should focus on affordable migration financing schemes to address poverty constraints, vocational training relevant to the international labor market, and strengthening the migration ecosystem in areas with high unemployment rates. JEL Classification: F22, I25, E24, J30, I32
Copyright (c) 2026 Salbilla Azra, Khairul Amri, Cut Dian Fitri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Impact of the Family Hope Program on Cognitive Outcomes in Poor Rural Indonesia
Research Originality: This article assesses the impact of Indonesia’s Family Hope Program (PKH) using a composite cognitive score rather than single test scores and jointly analyzing additional outcomes (Body Mass Index and the Early Development Instrument), which previous conditional cash transfer evaluations have not examined together. Research Objectives: The study examines whether PKH improves cognitive outcomes among primary school children aged 6–9 years in poor rural areas of Indonesia. Research Method: The analysis uses 2013 ECED survey data about 11,183 children aged 6–9 years and employs propensity score matching to address selection bias using observational data. Empirical Results: PKH has no statistically significant effect on any cognitive test score or the composite index, and does not improve Body Mass Index. However, it has small positive effects on Early Development Instrument scores for language and cognitive development, especially basic literacy and numeracy. Implications: The findings indicate that investments in school quality, early-childhood education, home learning resources, and nutrition should complement PKH. JEL Classification: I21, I28, I38
Copyright (c) 2026 Eka Ayu Kusumaning Dewi Dillianti, Riatu Mariatul Qibtiyah https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Credit Composition and Subnational Economic Growth: Long-Run and Short-Run Evidence from East Nusa Tenggara
Research Originality. This study advances the finance–growth nexus literature by providing subnational time-series evidence on credit composition rather than aggregate credit, focusing on a structurally developing province in Eastern Indonesia. Research Objectives. This study examines whether different types of bank credit contribute differently to regional economic growth in East Nusa Tenggara. Research Methods. This study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The ARDL Bounds Test is employed to verify cointegration, followed by Error Correction Model (ECM) estimation and diagnostic stability tests. Empirical Results. The findings confirm a significant long-run relationship between credit composition and regional economic growth. Consumer credit exhibits a positive long-run effect on real GRDP, while investment credit shows a moderate impact. Working capital credit does not demonstrate a significant long-run contribution. Implications. The results suggest that not only the volume but also the credit allocation structure plays a crucial role in shaping regional economic performance. Policy strategies in developing regions should therefore emphasize productive and demand-supporting credit allocation to promote sustainable growth. JEL Classification: E44, O16, O47, R11
Copyright (c) 2026 Adri Ketmoen, Maria Imakulata Pongge, Salomon Leki, Angela Jeni Lodo https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Tariff Policy Challenges for Electronic Transmissions in Indonesia
Research Originality: This research introduces a novel empirical estimate of potential customs duty revenue from digitally transmitted imports in Indonesia, addressing a gap in digital trade policy research that has been largely filled by conceptual and legal analyses. Research Objectives: This study aims to operationalize digitally transmitted imports using Harmonized System (HS) codes across five subsectors registered in the Indonesian HS: (1)films/movies, (2)printed matter-books, (3)sound & media, (4)software, and (5)video games. Research Methods: This study constructs a panel dataset covering the period 2018–2023, using data from the Ministry of Finance and Central Bureau of Statistics. The analysis employs a two-way fixed-effects panel econometric regression model to control for unobserved heterogeneity across subsectors and over time. Empirical Results: The results indicate a positive relationship between import volume and state revenue from import duties, suggesting that higher import volumes directly contribute to increased fiscal receipts, strengthening the role of import duties. Implications: These findings highlight the growing fiscal relevance of digitally transmitted trade and suggest that the government should accelerate investment in digital infrastructure and strengthen cyber oversight to support sustainable growth in digital trade. JEL Classification: F13, F47, H2
Copyright (c) 2026 Naufalia Dinar Primacita, Khoirunurrofik Khoirunurrofik https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Forecasting Coal Consumption Reduction for Climate Change
Research Originality: This study uniquely examines how reducing coal consumption could mitigate climate change and help achieve the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. Research Objectives: This study investigates the impact of reducing coal consumption on climate change and on achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in Indonesia, a major coal exporter, as well as in China and India, which are expected to become major coal importers by 2030. Research Methods: This study employs a basic panel regression model to analyze data from 2015 to 2024, and uses an ARIMA method to forecast progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. Empirical Results: The findings highlight the urgent need for Indonesia, China, and India to shift to clean, renewable energy to meet the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, which aim to reduce emissions. Implications: This study recommends that the governments of Indonesia, China, and India should increase their use of renewable energy sources more consistently. JEL Classification: O1, O13, O130, O21, O210
Copyright (c) 2026 Baginda Parsaulian, Aidil Alfin, Zirah Eka Risandani Nasution https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Revisiting Trade Liberalization for Agriculture Productivity: Dynamic Evidence from a Global Panel of Countries
Research Originality: This study contributes to the literature by providing a comparative analysis of the dynamic relationship between agricultural trade liberalisation and total factor productivity (TFP) growth across income groups. It highlights how differences in structural capacity and innovation systems shape heterogeneous productivity outcomes across countries. Research Objectives: This study re-examines the dynamic impact of agricultural trade liberalisation on TFP growth across income groups and identifies the mechanisms underlying divergent productivity outcomes. Research Methods: A panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied to panel data from 35 major agricultural-producing countries over the period 2007–2024 to capture heterogeneous short-run dynamics and common long-run relationships. Empirical Results: The results reveal heterogeneous effects. Trade liberalisation significantly increases TFP growth in high-income countries through stronger technology diffusion and absorptive capacity. However, it generates weak or negative effects in middle-income countries due to structural constraints and limited innovation capacity. Implications: Agricultural trade liberalisation does not automatically enhance productivity; its benefits depend on domestic structural readiness and innovation capacity. JEL Classification: F13, Q17, O47, C23
Copyright (c) 2026 Mela Yunita, Setyaningrum Idfi, Sugeng Hariadi https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Regional Heterogeneity in Employment Determinants: Evidence from Indonesia
Research Originality: This study contributes to the literature by examining regional heterogeneity in employment determinants across Indonesia and underscoring the limitations of models relying solely on national aggregates. Research Objectives: This study investigates the differential impacts of foreign direct investment, economic growth, education, and health on employment at the national level and across distinct regional clusters in Indonesia. Research Methods: The study utilizes panel data regression covering 33 Indonesian provinces from 2011 to 2024, categorized into four regional clusters. Fixed- and random-effects models with robust standard errors are applied, with model selection based on formal specification tests. Empirical Results: The findings reveal substantial regional variation regarding the magnitude and statistical significance of employment determinants. While specific variables show significant associations within certain regions, these relationships remain obscured in national aggregate data. Implications: The results indicate that employment dynamics in Indonesia are inherently regional. Policymakers should prioritize regionally calibrated socioeconomic strategies over uniform national policies to effectively support employment expansion. JEL Classification: J21, F21, O15, O47, R11
Copyright (c) 2026 Franse, Maichal https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Human Development and Income Inequality in D-8 Countries: A Maqashid Sharia Perspective
Research Originality: This study is original in applying a Maqashid Sharia-based human development index to examine the short- and long-run effects of human development on income inequality in D-8 countries. Research Objectives: This study aims to analyze whether human development based on the Maqashid Sharia framework can effectively reduce income inequality in D-8 countries in both the short run and the long run. Research Methods: Using panel data from eight D-8 countries during 2003–2022, income inequality is measured by the Gini index and the Palma ratio, while human development is represented by the Maqashid Sharia Index (MSI). The analysis employs a Panel ARDL model with the Pooled Mean Group estimator to capture short-run and long-run relationships. Empirical Results: The results show that Maqashid Sharia-based human development significantly reduces income inequality in the long run across D-8 countries, reflecting the maslahah-oriented approach of Islamic economic development. In the short run, it reduces inequality in Indonesia and Turkey but increases inequality in Bangladesh, Egypt, and Nigeria. Implications: These findings suggest that human development policies should incorporate moral and value-based dimensions. Policymakers in D-8 countries need to promote not only education, health, and income, but also ethical values to ensure more equitable income distribution. JEL Classification: C33, F22, I32, J61, J62
Copyright (c) 2026 Shofiatul Hilwa, Dr. Risna Triandhari, M.S.E., Raden Parianom https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
The Strategic Role of Stakeholders in Stunting Alleviation through the MACTOR Method
Research Originality: This research is original because it uses a MACTOR analysis to examine the roles and interactions of stakeholders in stunting alleviation and their impact on improving the quality of human resources in Jember Regency. Research Objectives: This study aims to analyze the roles, interests, and influence of key stakeholders involved in stunting alleviation and to assess how their coordination contributes to improving human resource quality in Jember Regency. Research Methods: This research employs a mixed-methods approach, using the MACTOR method, to examine stakeholder relationships. Data were collected through interviews, document analysis, and secondary data related to stunting and human development indicators. Empirical Results: The findings indicate that stakeholder roles in stunting alleviation are uneven, with limited coordination and varying levels of influence. Weak synergy among actors reduces the effectiveness of stunting reduction programs and their impact on human resource quality. Implications: These results suggest the need for stronger stakeholder coordination, clearer role distribution, and integrated policies to enhance stunting alleviation and support sustainable human resource development in Jember Regency. JEL Classification: I15, Q01, D70, P11
Copyright (c) 2026 Miftah Ichda Diera, Mohammad Saleh, Duwi Yunitasari https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Urban–Rural Differences in Sustainable Energy Consumption Behavior: Evidence from Indonesia
Research Originality: This study offers a novel contribution by integrating micro-level spatial comparison and behavioral analysis. Unlike previous studies that highlight income or education as key drivers, this research finds that structural factors have a stronger influence on energy-saving behavior. Research Objectives: This study aims to examine household energy consumption patterns and identify the socioeconomic and structural determinants of energy-saving behavior in urban and rural settings. Research Methods: A mixed-methods approach is employed. Qualitative analysis using ATLAS.ti explores household energy-use practices and perceptions, while binary logit regression is applied to identify factors influencing energy-efficient behavior. Empirical Results: The results indicate significant differences in energy consumption between urban and rural households. Urban households tend to consume more energy due to lifestyle characteristics and appliance ownership. Regression results show that household size, dwelling area, installed electrical capacity, and residential location significantly affect the likelihood of adopting energy-saving behavior. Rural households exhibit a higher propensity for energy-efficient practices, mainly due to limited electricity access and reliance on traditional energy sources. Implications: Energy policies should incorporate spatial and socioeconomic dimensions, reduce subsidy-induced price distortions, and promote incentives for energy-efficient behavior and renewable energy adoption. JEL Classification: J41, J42, D12, R20
Copyright (c) 2026 Nurul Istiqomah, Izza Mafruhah, Evi Gravitiani, Fauziyah Nisa Rahmawati https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Carbon Accountability in Indonesia’s State-Owned Assets Management
Research Originality: This study is among the first to introduce an Environmentally Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) framework to quantify the carbon externalities of state-owned assets (BMN) management in Indonesia. This area has received limited empirical attention. Research Objectives: The study aims to systematically measure direct and indirect carbon emissions associated with BMN utilization and assess their implications for public asset governance. Research Methods: An EE-IO model is constructed using Indonesia’s 2016 input-output table, sectoral emission intensities, and audited government electricity expenditure data to estimate emission multipliers and carbon impacts. Empirical Results: The Electricity and Gas Supply sector exhibits the highest emission multiplier (4,919.05 tons CO₂ per billion Rupiah). Electricity-related BMN expenditure is estimated to generate 28.4 million tons of CO₂, revealing a substantial but previously under-recognized source of environmental burden. Implications: The findings support emission-informed budgeting, emission-based performance indicators, and the integration of carbon accountability into public asset management. JEL Classification: Q56, H54, D57, H83
environmentally extended input-output analysis
Copyright (c) 2026 Mohammad Amin Rasyidi, Tanda Setiya https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Currency Risk and Debt Maturity: Their Effects on the Resilience of Indonesia’s Foreign Exchange Reserves
Research Originality: This study uncovers the unexpected negative impact of long-term external debt on Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves, challenging conventional beliefs about debt stability. Research Objectives: This study provides important—and occasionally surprising—new insights into the dynamics of Indonesia's external debt and its impact on the country's foreign exchange reserves. Research Methods: Using recent time series data from 2013–2024 and the tried-and-true OLS regression method, this study provides a thorough and timely analysis of the relationship between Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves and the structure of its external debt. Empirical Results: The empirical results indicate that long-term debt has a negative impact on foreign exchange reserves, whereas Rupiah and foreign currency-denominated debts have positive effects. Notably, short-term debt shows no significant impact. These findings offer practical guidance for Indonesia’s external debt management, supporting better debt prioritization and enhanced financial resilience. Implications: These novel insights offer valuable guidance for optimizing debt management to strengthen Indonesia’s financial resilience and economic stability. JEL Classification: E4, E5, E6 How to Cite: Afriana, W., Damanhuri, D. S., Taryono.,& Amanah, S. (2025). Currency Risk and Debt Maturity: Their Effects on the Resilience of Indonesia’s Foreign Exchange Reserves. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 14(2), 537-548. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v14i2.46526.
Copyright (c) 2025 Wendra Afriana, Didin S. Damanhuri, Taryono Taryono, Siti Amanah https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Climate Stress, Inflation, and Foreign Investment: Do Growth and Corruption Control Shape Inequality?
Research Originality: This study provides a new contribution by examining climate stress, inflation, and foreign investment within a single integrated framework. By uniting environmental, macroeconomic, and governance factors, it offers a clearer understanding of the structural drivers of inequality in ASEAN-4. Research Objectives: The study examines the impacts of climate change, inflation, and foreign investment on inequality and evaluates how economic growth and corruption control moderate these effects. Research Methods: The study uses annual panel data for Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines from 2002 to 2023 and applies moderated panel regression analysis to estimate both direct and interaction effects. Empirical Results: Climate pressures and foreign investment increase inequality, while inflation slightly reduces it. The analysis also shows that economic growth lessens the inequality effect of foreign investment, whereas stronger corruption control unexpectedly amplifies it, suggesting that better governance does not automatically ensure fairer investment outcomes. Implications: These findings suggest that ASEAN-4 policymakers must align inclusive growth, inflation stability, environmental action, and improved governance to effectively reduce inequality and support sustainable development. JEL Classification: D63, E31, F21, O44, O43
Copyright (c) 2026 Riska Zahara, M Shabri Abd Majid, Muhammad Abrar https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Do Tourism-Related Sectors Drive Most of the Economy in Toba Regency? A RAS-based Regional Input-Output Analysis
Research Originality: This study constructs the first regional Input–Output (RIO) table for Toba Regency in 2023, utilizing the iterative RAS technique to adapt provincial coefficients to local macroeconomic data. Research Objectives: To estimate sectoral interlinkages, multiplier effects, and labor intensity for Toba Regency, and to identify strategic sectors that can drive regional economic growth and inform evidence-based policymaking. Research Methods: The 2016 North Sumatra I–O table was regionalized into a 22-sector Toba Regency table through RAS, with row and column sums adjusted to match Toba Regency GRDP by industry and expenditure. The resulting table was analyzed to calculate backward and forward linkages, output multipliers, and labor intensity. Empirical Results: The local economy is primarily driven by paper manufacturing, agriculture, and construction, while the tourism sector contributes only 6.2 percent of output and exhibits weak forward linkages. This finding suggests limited integration of tourism-related activities into the local supply chain. Electricity, business services, and agriculture emerge as growth drivers, while wage disparities persist in low-productivity service sectors. Implications: The approach can guide other subnational governments in producing localized Input–Output (I–O) tables, thereby enhancing evidence-based policymaking. JEL Classification: D57, R15, R58 How to Cite: Susanti, H., Revindo, M.D., Iskandar, S.D., Nusantoro, N., & Sabrina, S. (2025). Do Tourism-Related Sectors Drive Most of the Economy in Toba Regency? A RAS-based Regional Input-Output Analysis. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 14(2), 521-536. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v14i2.46490.
Copyright (c) 2025 Hera Susanti, Mohamad Dian Revindo, Sulistiadi Dono Iskandar, Nalendro Nusantoro, Syahda Sabrina https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
ASEAN Single Window and ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement Utilization in Indonesia
Research Originality: This study provides novel empirical evidence by introducing the Cross-Border Paperless Trade Index as a proxy for ASEAN Single Window implementation to examine how the depth of digital trade facilitation influences Indonesia’s utilization of the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement. Research Objectives: This research aims to analyze the impact of ASEAN Single Window implementation on Indonesia’s utilization of the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement, both at the aggregate level and across sectors. Research Methods: This study uses unpublished Indonesian import panel data from eight ASEAN member countries for the period 2018–2023, and analyzes them using two-way fixed-effects panel data to control for unobserved heterogeneity across product-trading partners and over time. Empirical Results: Higher levels of ASEAN Single Window implementation in partner countries have a positive and statistically significant effect on Indonesia’s ATIGA utilization, indicating that digital trade facilitation reduces transaction costs and administrative barriers. Implications: These findings suggest that strengthening the effectiveness of digital trade facilitation, particularly through the ASEAN Single Window, is crucial for increasing the practical use of preferential trade agreements and supporting deeper economic integration within ASEAN. JEL Classification: F10, F13, F14, F15
Copyright (c) 2026 Sherly Luthfi Anita, Christina Ruth Elisabeth https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
The Impact of Investment and Labor Force Participation on Poverty in Aceh: The Mediating Role of Per Capita Income
Research Originality: Poverty remains a persistent challenge in Aceh Province despite multiple interventions. This study contributes to the literature by examining both the direct and indirect effects of investment and labor on poverty, as measured by per capita income, using path analysis. Research Objectives: The study aims to examine the impact of Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR), Domestic Investment (DI), and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on poverty, with per capita income (PCI) as a mediating factor. Research Methods: Time-series data from 2009 to 2023 were analyzed using path analysis to identify direct and indirect relationships. Empirical Results: Findings show that per capita income has the most substantial effect in reducing poverty. DI significantly influences poverty, both directly and indirectly, while LFPR and FDI exhibit no significant impact; however, both trends show a negative correlation with poverty. Implications: Poverty alleviation strategies should prioritize income growth through domestic investment optimization and enhancing workforce quality. JEL Classification: I32, I21, F21, O16 How to Cite: Wayus, D., Safuridar., & Syarief S. (2025). The Impact of Investment and Labor Force Participation on Poverty in Aceh: The Mediating Role of Per Capita Income. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 14(2), 505-520. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v14i2.46434.
Copyright (c) 2025 Dicky Wayus, Safuridar Safuridar, Salman Syarief https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Factors of Halal Industry Ecosystem Development: A Study on the Islamic Hospital Industry in Indonesia
Research Originality: This study offers originality by examining Islamic hospitals, a sector that has been rarely explored in halal industry research. It employs a quantitative approach to analyze how knowledge and perception influence public intention, with preference serving as a mediating variable, providing new empirical evidence for strengthening the halal ecosystem in healthcare services. Research Objectives: This study aims to investigate the impact of knowledge and perception factors on public intentions to use sharia-certified hospitals, with preference serving as a mediating variable. Research Method: A quantitative descriptive approach was employed, utilizing primary data collected through questionnaires and analyzed using the Structural Equation Modeling-Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS) method. Respondents consisted of individuals living in areas with the presence of Islamic hospitals. Empirical Results: The results showed that knowledge and perceptions have a significant influence on community preferences. Perceptions and preferences are also proven to affect people's intentions in choosing Islamic hospitals, while knowledge does not show a direct impact on intentions. Preference acts as a mediator in the relationship between knowledge, perception, and intentions. Implications: The findings underscore the significance of education in enhancing public knowledge, promoting positive perceptions, and developing effective marketing and regulatory strategies to strengthen the position of Islamic hospitals within the halal ecosystem development in Indonesia. JEL Classification: M31, O14, Z12 How to Cite: Masruroh, A., & Rahmawati, Y. (2025). Factors of Halal Industry Ecosystem Development: A Study on the Islamic Hospital Industry in Indonesia. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 14(2), 591-604. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v14i2.46428.
Copyright (c) 2025 Aini Masruroh, Yuke Rahmawati https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Do Coffee Exports Have an Impact on Economic Growth in Indonesia?
Research Originality: The novelty lies in exploring an under-researched topic, with limited studies on the impact of coffee exports from 1993 to 2024, considering key events such as the Asian financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Research Objectives: This study examines the short-term and long-term effects of exchange rates and coffee exports on economic growth. Research Methods: This study utilizes data from 1993 to 2024 on exchange rates, coffee exports, recessions, and economic growth in Indonesia. The analysis is conducted using the ARDL model. Empirical Results: Exchange rate depreciation has a negative impact on GDP in the short term, while past depreciation has a positive effect on economic growth. The value of coffee exports has a marginal positive effect on GDP, while the volume of coffee exports shows inconsistent impacts. Recession does not significantly affect GDP, likely due to policy responses. Long-term estimates show a stable relationship among the variables, with adjustments occurring at a rate of 35.43% per period. Implications: The government should thoroughly evaluate existing policies with a focus on promoting economic growth, while enhancing the quality of Indonesian coffee exports to remain competitive globally. JEL Classification: C32, E01, F10, O11 How to Cite: Hikmatias, N.A., Zahra, Z.N., Octariyadi, N.U., & Sahara. (2025). Do Coffee Exports Have an Impact on Economic Growth in Indonesia?. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 14(2), 489-504. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v14i2.46425.
Copyright (c) 2025 Nazla Atikah Hikmatias Nasution, Zhena Nofhatiaz Zahra, Nabila Umami Octariyadi, Sahara Sahara https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
The Dynamics of Indonesian Migrant Workers: Their Short- and Long-Term Impact
Research Originality: This study integrates factors influencing Indonesian migrant workers into a Panel VECM model that captures both short- and long-term dynamics. Research Objectives: This study investigates the factors that affect the short- and long-term migration of Indonesian migrant workers. Research Methods: This study uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. Panel data were analyzed for six provinces on Java Island, covering the period 2008 to 2023. Empirical Results: This study found significant positive effects of provincial minimum wage, employment opportunity rates, and poverty levels on the short-term migration of Indonesian migrant workers in Java. In the long term, all variables positively influenced Indonesian migrant worker migration, except for poverty, which had a non-significant effect. Implications: These findings indicate an anomaly in the factors influencing the PMI. Therefore, we assert that policymakers in Indonesia must periodically review and adjust the UMP and implement effective price-control measures to ensure that workers’ basic needs are met at a reasonable cost of living. JEL Classification: C33, F22, I32, J61, J62
Copyright (c) 2026 Edy Santoso, Vebry Eka Kusuwardhani, Fivien Muslihatinningsih https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Unlocking Sustainability in Informal Micro Enterprises: Capital Access in The Fintech Era
Research Originality: This study offers a unique exploration of how capital access mediates the impact of financial literacy and fintech peer-to-peer (P2P) lending on the sustainability of micro and small enterprises (MSEs) in traditional markets, utilizing SDG-based indicators. Research Object: This study examines the effects of financial literacy and fintech P2P lending on capital access and sustainability of MSEs in traditional markets. Research Methods: The study employed a quantitative approach, utilizing Structural Equation Modeling analysis, using 232 MSEs in Jakarta. Empirical Results: The findings indicate that financial literacy and fintech P2P lending have a positive impact on both capital access and the sustainability of MSEs. However, capital access did not significantly affect the sustainability of MSE or mediate either factor. Implications: The Financial Services Authority (OJK) must enhance legislation protecting MSEs from fintech risks and promote financial literacy. The OJK must coordinate P2P platforms, cooperatives, and MSE offices. Creating an inclusive fintech ecosystem for traditional market MSEs, with microloans and mentorship, is essential for viable financing. JEL Classification: G21, G53, L26, O16, Q01 How to Cite: Ispriyahadi, H., Zaenudin, Wati, L. N. (2025). Unlocking Sustainability in Informal Micro Enterprises: Capital Access in the Fintech Era. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 14(2), 467-488. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v14i2.46421.
Copyright (c) 2025 Heri Ispriyahadi, Zaenudin Zaenudin, Lela Nurlaela Wati https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
The Future of Health Expenditure in ASEAN Countries: A Forecasting Analysis with ARIMA
Research Originality: The primary contribution of this research is its novel analysis and forecasting of health expenditure in the ASEAN region, which has been previously underexamined by scholars. Research Objectives: This research forecasts per capita health expenditure across three ASEAN countries, broken down by government, private, and out-of-pocket sources. Research Methods: This study employs a time series ARIMA model approach using secondary data from the World Bank for the period 2000 to 2021 Empirical Results: The findings indicate that projections for all three countries significantly increase across all health expenditure categories. Singapore is expected to see a sharp surge in all health expenditure components. At the same time, Indonesia is forecasted to achieve the highest growth rate in percentage terms, but lags in nominal terms. Conversely, Malaysia is projected to experience moderate growth in health expenditure. Implications: This research underscores the financing disparities and the urgent need for health system reform. JEL Classification: I18, C22, O53 How to Cite: Melati, A. P. S., & Sihaloho, E. D. (2025). The Future of Health Expenditure in ASEAN Countries: A Forecasting Analysis with ARIMA. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 14(2), 449-466. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v14i2.46420.
Copyright (c) 2025 Alexsandra Putri Sekar Melati, Estro Dariatno Sihaloho https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Employment as the Missing Link: Full Mediation of Minimum Wage Effect on Per Capita Income in Central Java
Research Originality: This paper is original by explicitly analyzing employment as a mediating variable in the relationship between minimum wage and per capita income, given the inconclusive findings of previous research on these variables. Research Objectives: This study investigates the relationship between minimum wage and per capita income and examines the mediating role of employment with two control variables: government expenditure and education. Research Methods: This study utilized secondary data from BPS covering 35 districts and municipalities in Central Java Province over the period 2018–2023. The study applies panel-data regression, complemented by mediation analysis using path analysis and the Sobel test. Empirical Results: The minimum wage does not directly affect per capita income; instead, its impact is fully mediated by employment. The finding suggests that the minimum wage alone does not raise per capita income; rather, it exerts its influence indirectly by improving employment, which in turn drives income growth. As control variables, government expenditure and education exert positive and significant effects on per capita income. Implications: A minimum wage policy must be accompanied by job-creation strategies. A minimum wage increase without policies that maintain or increase jobs will not effectively boost per capita income. JEL Classification: E24, H52, J31, O15 How to Cite: Pratista, R., Istiqomah., & Pravitasari, C. F. (2025). Employment as the Missing Link: Full Mediation of Minimum Wage Effect on per Capita Income in Central Java. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 14(2), 437-448. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v14i2.46419.
Copyright (c) 2025 Regina Pratista, Istiqomah Istiqomah, Chairani Fadhila Pravitasari https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Frugal Living is A New Alternative Gen Z Lifestyle
Research Originality: This research novelty is about the location of Surakarta City and the relationship between lifestyle and love of money towards frugal living. Research Objectives: This study examines the frugal living practices of Generation Z in Surakarta City. Research Methods: This study used quantitative methods with PLS-SEM for analysis. The variables in this study include frugal living, lifestyle, love of money, and financial management. Empirical Results: The findings show that lifestyle and love of money significantly influence frugal living among Generation Z in Surakarta City. At the same time, financial management does not have a significant impact on frugal living among Generation Z in Surakarta City. Implications: These results highlight the importance of financial literacy improvement policies that include environmentally friendly consumption patterns and raise awareness among Generation Z to use local products. JEL Classification: D14, D91, G41 How to Cite: Rahmasari, H. A. S., Mafruhah, I., Istiqomah, N., & Gravitiani, E. (2025). Frugal Living is A New Alternative Gen Z Lifestyle. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 14(2), 423-436. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v14i2.46418.
Copyright (c) 2025 Himas Arum Syarifah Rahmasari, Izza Mafruhah, Nurul Istiqomah, Evi Gravitiani https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
The Rising Food Prices in Ramadan and Its Impact on Inflation
Research Originality: This study proposes a new contribution by analyzing the seasonal pattern of rising food prices in Ramadan and its impact on inflation over the period 2018–2024. This data range allows for more recent and relevant identification. Research Objectives: This study aims to describe food prices before, during, and after Ramadan and to analyze their impact on inflation, using data from January 2018 to May 2024. Research Methods: This research uses descriptive statistical methods to analyze food prices and inflation, and multiple linear regression to examine the impact of food prices on inflation. Empirical Results: This study found that prices of all food commodities tended to increase before, during, and after Ramadan, especially in Ramadan 2022. Descriptively, inflation also showed an increasing pattern before, during, and after Ramadan in most observation years, except 2020. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that only chicken prices had a significant effect on inflation, while the other nine foods did not. Implications: These findings suggest that the government prioritize controlling the prices of strategic commodities like chicken during Ramadan by stabilizing supply and disseminating price information equitably. Furthermore, education on wise consumption and support for food access for poor groups can help mitigate price fluctuations on the demand side. JEL Classification: Q110, E310, E210 How to Cite: Mutiara, T., Al Arif, M. N. R., & Anwar, M. (2025). The Rising Food Prices in Ramadhan and Its Impact on Inflation. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 14(2), 407-422. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v14i2.46417.
Copyright (c) 2025 Tira Mutiara, Mohammad Nur Rianto Al Arif, Muhammad Anwar https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0