Substitution or Complementarity? Sukuk–Bank Performance Resilience in Indonesia’s Dual Banking System
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v14i2.46415Keywords:
sukuk market development, dual banking system, bank performance, Islamic banking, macroeconomic shocksAbstract
Research Originality: This study examines whether sukuk serves as a substitute or complement to banks, offering new insights into the resilience and vulnerability of Indonesia’s dual banking system under macroeconomic shocks.
Research Objectives: To examine the evolving sukuk–bank performance relationship before and after the 2020 global recession, and its implications for financial stability.
Research Methods: Quarterly data (2015–2023) from 6 Islamic and 15 conventional banks are analyzed using a dynamic panel System GMM model to address endogeneity and bank-specific heterogeneity.
Empirical Results: Prior to the crisis, the development of the sukuk market significantly reduced the profitability of Islamic banks, indicating a substitution effect. After the crisis, the negative impact on Islamic banks weakened, suggesting partial complementarity. Inflation widened margins, money supply reduced them, and GDP growth benefited only conventional banks.
Implications: Aligning sukuk market growth with banking strategies can strengthen resilience, enhance competitiveness, and support stability in dual banking systems.
JEL Classification: G21, G23, E44, E52
How to Cite:
Nofrianto., Zaenal, M. H., Khairunnisa, D. A., & Sali, N. R. A. (2025). Substitution or Complementarity? Sukuk-Bank Performance Resilience in Indonesia’s Dual Banking System. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 14(2), 563-xx. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v14i2.46415.
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