Examinating The Effect of Covid-19 on The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) Anomaly of The Islamic Stock Index in Indonesia
Abstract
This study aims to determine whether Covid-19 affects the return pattern of the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and whether the JII return is efficient in accordance with the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). To ensure that the data analysis was in accordance with the objectives, samples were taken from January 1, 2008, to June 28, 2024, with ARCH-GARCH analysis so that the results were consistent and not robust. The findings of this research are as follows: JII returns are efficient because there is no Covid-19 effect and EMH anomaly, where there is no evidence of the day-of-the-week effect, Monday Effect, Friday Effect, or week four effect. In addition, the appropriate model is asymmetric EGARCH (1,1) with non-normal error term distribution. These findings have implications for investors, policy makers, and researchers interested in the performance and behavior of the Islamic stock market, so that in analyzing the stock market more strengthen the fundamental analysis of the company.
Keywords
References
Adam, N. B., Yacob, N. B., & Musa, W. R. B. W. (2023). The Evidence of The Day of The Week Effect (DOW) on Islamic Stock Market Return in Relation to Calendar Anomalies. International Journal Of Academic Research In Accounting, Finance And Management Sciences, 13(2), E-ISSN: 2225-8329 © 2023 HRMARS. https://doi.org/10.6007/IJARAFMS/v13-i2/17509
Adaramola, A.O., & Adekanmbi, K. O. (2020). Day-of- the-week effect in Nigerian stock exchange: Adaptive Market Hypothesis Approach. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 17(1), 97-108. doi:10.21511/imfi.17(1).2020.09
Afrilianto, A., & Daryanto, W. M. (2019). Market Anomaly Testing: The Day Of The Week Effect On LQ45 Stocks In Indonesia Stock Exchange. International Journal of Business, Economics and Law, 19(1). ISSN 2289-1552
Akkuş, H. T. (2022). An Investigation Of Calendar Anomalies In Islamic Stock Markets: The Day-Of-The-Week Effect. Research of Financial Economic and Social Studies, 7(4). ISSN : 2602 – 2486. https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.1196753
Plastun A., Makarenko, I., Khomutenko, L., Shcherbak, S., & Tryfonova, O. (2019). Exploring price gap anomaly in the Ukrainian stock market. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 16(2), 150-158. doi:10.21511/imfi.16(2).2019.13
Avci, E., (2016). Day Of The Week Effect In Conventional And Islamic Stock Indexes. International Journal of Commerce and Finance, 2(2), 71-83. http://ijcf.ticaret.edu.tr.
Badri, R. E. (2023). Ramadan Effect on the Returns of the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Syariah Index (FBMHS). Indo-Fintech Intellectuals: Journal of Economics and Business, 3 (2), 265-275. http://doi.org/10.54373/ifijeb.v3i2.183.
Bagaskara, W., & Kharunnisa. (2019). Market Anomaly Analysis: The Day Of The Week Effect, January Effect, Rogalsky Effect And Week- Four Effect Testing In Indonesia Stock Exchange (Case Study On Companies Listed In LQ45 Index In 2013- 2017). Accounting Research Journal of Sutaatmadja (Accruals). 3(1). 1 – 9. https://doi.org/10.35310/accruals.v3i1.42
Bolek, M., Szymańska, A.G., & Lyroudi, K. (2023). The Day‐of‐the‐Week Anomaly in Light of the COVID–19 Pandemic on an Example of Selected OMX Indices. Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe. Volume 26(2), 2023 https://doi.org/10.18778/1508‐2008.26.16
Chaouaci, O., & Dhaou, I. (2020). The Day of the Week Effect: Unconditional and Conditional Market Risk Analysis. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2020, 10(6), 94-98. ISSN: 2146-4138. available at http: www.econjournals.com. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.10610
Cipto, S.H., Endri, E., Haryono, Y., & Hartanto, D. (2024). Islamic Stock Indices and COVID-19: Evidence from Indonesia. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2024, 14(3), 83-88. DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.15942
Dash, M., (2020). Testing the Day-of-the-Week Effect in the Indian Stock Market Using the AR-GARCH Mode. AJEFM, 2(1): 17-41, Article no.AJEFM.180. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3567369
Dewi, R., & Dewi, F. R. (2022). January Effect Analysis on The Indonesian Stock Market (Case Study of the 2016-2020 LQ45 Index Stock). The Management Journal of Binaniaga, 7 (1), 31-42. https://doi.org/10.33062/mjb.v7i1.488
Dharmawan, A., Khairunnisa., & Kurnia, S. A. B. (2020). Analisis Anomali Pasar: Pengujian The Day Of The Week Effect, Dan Rogalsky Effect Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (Studi Pada Perusahaan yang Termasuk dalam JII Tahun 2015 – 2019). e-Proceeding of Management : Vol.7(2), 5671. ISSN : 2355-9357.
Dutta, A & Das, S. (2021). Day-of-the-Week and Month of the Year Anomalies in the Indian Stock Market using Multiple Regression Technique. International Journal of Management (IJM), 12(5), 101-111, Article ID: IJM_12_05_009 Available online at https://iaeme.com/Home/issue/IJM?Volume=12&Issue=5 ISSN Print: 0976-6502 and ISSN Online: 0976-6510, DOI: 10.34218/IJM.12.5.2021.009
Enaizeh , N. A, & Al Kilani, Q. A., (2022). Day Of The Week Effect On Stocks’ Returns: Evidence From Amman Stock Exchange (Jordan). Journal Of Southwest Jiaotong University. Vol. 57(3). June 2022. ISSN: 0258-2724. DOI:10.35741/issn.0258-2724.57.3.21
Gharaibeh, O. K. (2021). Calendar Anomalies in the GCC Equity Markets. Jordan Journal of Business Administration, Volume 17(2), 2021. DAR Publishers/The University of Jordan
Güneş, H. (2021). Determination of Day of the Week and January Anomalies in BIST 100 and KAT 30 Indexes. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 23(1), 236-248. https://doi.org/10.32709/akusosbil.789742
Habibi, A. Nomasyhuri, K & Anggraeni, E. (2022). The Indonesian Sharia Capital Market in Shock Covid-19: Global Market Interaction. EQUILIBRIUM: Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah,10(2) 2022, 381-410. P-ISSN: 2355-0228, E-ISSN: 2502-8316 http://journal.iainkudus.ac.id/index.php/equilibrium. http://dx.doi.org/10.21043/equilibrium.v10i2.16457.
Hasan, H. & Khan, M. S., (2019). Day-of-Week Effect on Stock Market Return, Volatility and Trade Volume: Evidence from Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.15174.73288/1. License CC BY 4.0. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3383245
Hashibul, H., & Kayser, S. (2019). Ramadan effect on stock market return and trade volume: Evidence fom Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), Cogent Economics & Finance, 7:1, 1605105, DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2019.1605105
Huna, N, Rini, N, Setianingruum, A., & Zulihar., (2022). Is There Any Effect Of Covid 19 On The Performance Of The Sharia Stock Index? Share. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan Islam, 11(1), 171-185. http://ejournal.seaninstitute.or.id/index.php/Ekonomi. SSN: 2301-6280 (print) ISSN: 2721-9879 (online). https://doi.org/10.22373/share.v11i1.10726
Iswadi, T., Nada, T. S., Adif, R. M., & Welhendra., (2022). Pengujian Monday Effect dan Weekend Effect terhadap Return Saham Perusahaan di Jakarta Islamic Indeks (JII) Periode Sebelum dan Sesudah Covid – 19. Jurnal Informatika Ekonomi Bisnis. 4(4), 239-243. https://doi.org/10.37034/infeb.v4i4.182
Khan, A., Sarim, M., Tabash, M. I., & Akhtar, A. (2018). Examining anomalies in Islamic equity market of the emerging economies. Economic Annals-XXI (2018), 170(3-4), 64-68. https://doi.org/10.21003/ea.V170-11
Khasawneh, O. A. H., (2022). The Day-Of-The-Week Effect: Does Ownership Matter? Asian Economic and Financial Review. ISSN(e): 2222-6737, ISSN(p): 2305-2147; DOI: 10.55493/5002.v12i6.4519; 12(6), 438-449
Komariah, S., & Ramadhan, A. A., (2022). Phenomenon The Day Of The Week Effect On The Indonesia, Japan, And American Stock Exchanges Before, During, And After The Covid-19 Pandemic. Jurnal Ekonomi, 11(02), ISSN: 2301-6280 (print) ISSN: 2721-9879 (online). http://ejournal.seaninstitute.or.id/index.php/Ekonomi.
Kusherawati, U., & Fauziyah., (2023). Analisis Monday Effect Dan Weekend Effect Pada Perusahaan Jakarta Islamic Indeks (JII) Yang Terdaftar di BEI. Journal of Sustainability Business Research. 4(2). ISSN : 2746 – 8607
Luxianto, R., Arief, U., & Prasetyo, M. B., (2020). Day-of-the-Week Effect and Investors’ Psychological Mood Testing in a Highly Mispriced Capital Market. Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business. 35(3), 257 – 269. https://doi.org/10.22146/jieb.54377
Mazviona, B. W., Mah, G., & Choga, I., (2022). Day Of The Week Effect In The South African Equity Market: A GARCH Analysis. Економик. ISSN 0350-137X, EISSN 2334-9190, UDK 338 (497,1), 68(1), p 15- 30. DOI: 10.5937/ekonomika2201015M. http://www.ekonomika.org.rs. https://doi.org/10.5937/ekonomika2201015M
Nomran, N. M., & Haron. R., (2021). The impact of COVID‑19 pandemic on Islamic versus conventional stock markets: international evidence from financial markets. Future Business Journal. (2021) 7: 33. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-021-00078-5
Nur, T., & Dewangkara, N., (2020). The Day of the Week Effect in Return of the Five Cryptocurrencies Market. Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research, volume 585 Proceedings of the 1st UMGESHIC International Seminar on Health, Social Science and Humanities (UMGESHIC-ISHSSH 2020). https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.211020.063
Pandey, A., (2022). Empirical Evidence Of Calendar Anomalies For The Egyptian Stock Market. Journal of Commerce & Accounting Research, 11(4), 15-26 http://publishingindia.com/jcar/
Plastun, A., Kozmenko, S., Plastun V., & Filatova, H., (2019). Market anomalies and data persistence: The case of the day-of-the-week effect. Journal of International Studies, 12(3), 122-130. DOI:10.14254/2071-8330.2019/12-3/10
Prastiana, D., Handini, D. P., & Mas, N., (2021). Pengaruh Monday Effect dan Weekend Effect Terhadap Return Saham (Studi Pada Saham Perusahaan LQ 45 Periode Agustus 2020 – Januari 2021). The 2nd Widyagama National Conference on Economics and Business (WNCEB 2021). Program Studi Manajemen Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis. Universitas Widyagama Malang. P-ISSN: 2598-5272; E-ISSN: 2598-5280. http://publishing-widyagama.ac.id/ejournal-v2/index.php/WNCEB
Rahim, R., & Berlian, D. M., (2020). The Impacts of The Week Effect on The JII Returns and Risks. Jurnal Ilmiah Poli Bisnis, 12(1). e-ISSN : 2656-1212/p-ISSN : 1858-3717. 27 - 41
Rejeb, A. B., & Arfaoui, M., (2018). Do Islamic stock indexes outperform conventional stock indexes? A state space modeling approach. European Journal of Management and Business Economics Vol. 28(3), 2019 pp. 301-322 Emerald Publishing Limited 2444-8494 DOI 10.1108/EJMBE-08-2018-0088
Riyani, Y., Andriana, S., Mardiah, K., Suherma, L., Riyadhi, B., Arianto, A., Khamim, K., Jakfar, K., & Endri, E., (2022). Stock Market Reactions before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Indonesia. Wseas Transactions on Business and Economics,19, 2022. E-ISSN: 2224-2899. P: 1189 – 1194. DOI: 10.37394/23207.2022.19.104.
Sahoo, M., (2021). COVID-19 impact on stock market: Evidence from the Indian stock market. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/pa. J Public Affairs. 2021;21:e2621. © 2021 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2621
Sahu, D., (2023). Day of the Week Anomalies in Daily Returns: Evidence from Indian Capital Market. International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI) ISSN (Online): 2319-8028, ISSN (Print):2319-801X. www.ijbmi.org; Volume 12(9), PP 77-81. DOI: 10.35629/8028-12097781
Sansa, N. A., (2020). The Impact of the Covid-19 on the financial markets: Evidence from China and USA. Electronic Reasearch Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 2 (2), 29-23. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3567901
Saxena, S., Purohit, H., & Malhotra, N., (2021). ‘Diminishing calendar anomalies: case of Indian equity markets’, Global Business and Economics Review, 24(1), pp.43–58. https://doi.org/10.1504/GBER.2021.111999
Shariff, N. S. M., & Yusof, N. A., (2021). Stock Market Anomalies: A Case Of Calendar Effects On The Malaysian Stock Market . Malaysian Journal of Computing, 6 (1): 772-777, 2021. https://doi.org/10.24191/mjoc.v6i1.11212
Spulbar, C., (2021). A Critical Survey on Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) and Fractal Markets Hypothesis (FMH) Considering Their Implication on Stock Markets Behavior. “Ovidius” University Annals, Economic Sciences Series; XXI(2). https://doi.org/10.61801/OUAESS.2021.2.156
Susianti, N., & Rahmawati, N., (2020). Abnormal Return Saham JII Pra-Pasca PSBB Covid-19. Journal of Enterprise and Development. E-ISSN : 2685-8258. P-ISSN : 2715-3118. Vol. 2(2). https://doi.org/10.20414/jed.v2i2.2664
Syarif, F., (2019). Regulatory Framework For Islamic Financial Institutions: Lesson Learnt Between Malaysia And Indonesia. Journal of Halal Product and Research, 2(2) https://doi.org/10.20473/jhpr.vol.2-issue.2.79-85
Syed, F., & Khan, N. U., (2017). Islamic Calendar Anomalies: Evidence from Pakistan. Business & Economic Review,22(9), No.3. pp. 1-30. DOI: dx.doi.org/10.22547/BER/9.3.1.
T,ilică, E. V., (2021). Financial Contagion Patterns in Individual Economic Sectors. The Day-of-the-Week Effect from the Polish, Russian and Romanian Markets. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14: 442. https:// doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14090442
Tran, T. N., (2023). Day of Week Effect on Financial Market: Evidences in Vietnam during Normal Period and COVID-19 Pandemic. Kinerja, 27(1), 29-45. https://doi.org/10.24002/kinerja.v27i1.6377
Tukenmez, N. M; Saka, H, Kizgin, M., 2019. Conventional and Islamic Indices: A Comparison on Performance. The Journal of Accounting and Finance- August 2019 Special Issue 415-430. SSN: 2146-3042. DOI: 10.25095/mufad.607189. pp: 415-430
Wakhidah, N. & Rafik, A. 2019. Fenomena The day of the week effect di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Call for Papers FMI 2019 Samarinda
Widodo, P., (2022). Is the Volatility of the Islamic Stock Index Lower than the Conventional Stock Index during Covid-19 Pandemic? Empirical Evidence in Indonesia Stock Exchange. JIEFeS. Journal of Islamic Economics and Finance Studies. 3(1). 24-42. ISSN 2723 – 6730 (Print) DOI. http://dx.doi.org/10.47700/jiefes.v3i1.4364 ISSN 2723 - 6749 (Online).
Widodo, P., (2024). An investigation of the effect of Covid-19 on efficient market hypothesis (EMH) anomalies: Econometric approach. Jurnal Samudra Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 15(1), 130-143. DOI : 10.33059/jseb.v15i1.8093
Winarto, W. W. A., (2021). Analisis Komparasi Kinerja Saham Yang Terdaftar Di Jakarta Islamic Indeks Sebelum Dan Selama Pandemi Covid 19. DAYA SAING. Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen Sumber Daya Vol. 23(2), Desember 2021. https://doi.org/10.23917/dayasaing.v23i2.16015
Wiratni, I. G. A., Surasni, N. K., & Suryani, E., (2021). Monday Effect and Weekend Effect Testing on IDX-30 Index on Indonesia Stock Exchange Period Before and During Covid-19 Pandemic. Journal of Xi’an Shiyou University, Natural Science Edition. Volume 17(07). ISSN : 1673-064X. http://xisdxjxsu.asia
Zhang, J., Lai, Y., & Lin, J. (2017). The day of the week effects of stock markets in different countries. Finance Research Letters, 20(2017):47–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2016.09.006
DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v16i2.40338
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.